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C O VID - 19
RE C O VER Y
A
P a th w a y
to
a
L o w - Carbon
and
R esilient
F uture
Clima te
Crisis
2015
C O VID - 19
Crisis
P aris
Agreemen t Sendai
F r amework
S ustainable D ev elopmen t Goals
R esponse
R ec o v ery
o v e r y
T ransf ormation
The
c orona virus
disease
( C O VID - 19)
pandemic
is
an unpr ec eden t ed
and
tr agic
global
health
crisis .
T o
c on t ain C O VID - 19 ,
go v ernmen ts
ha v e
implemen t ed
strict lock do wns
and
curbed
mobility ,
st alling
ec onomies
and leading
t o
a
pot en tial
global
ec onomic
and
financial
crisis . The
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank
( ADB)
estima t es
that
the global
ec onom y
c ould
suff er
betw een
$5.8
trillion
and
$8.8 trillion
in
los ses— equiv alen t
t o
6.4%
t o
9 . 7%
o f
global
gr os s domestic
pr oduct. 1
P olicy
mak er s
ar e
gr appling
with
the o ft en- c ompeting
int er ests
o f
managing
the
public
health risk
and
limiting
the
sc ale
o f
the
ec onomic
damage.
I mplemen ting
the
emer gency
r esponse
t o
C O VID - 19
has righ tly
t ak en
priority .
H o w ev er ,
as
dev eloping
member c oun tries
(DMCs)
be gin
t o
emer ge
fr om
the
lock do wns and
plan
their
r ec o v ery ,
a tt ention
must
r eturn
t o
addr es sing the
clima t e
crisis
and
building
r esilienc e.
W e
do
not
ha v e the
time
or
the
financing
t o
deal
with
each
crisis
separ a t ely . The
impact
o f
clima t e
change
is
alr eady
being
f elt,
and
is b ec oming
mor e
sev ere
ev ery
y ear .
P re - C O VID - 19
analy sis
sho w ed
that
clima t e
change
c ould
push
an
additional
100 million
people
int o
po v er ty
b y
20 30.
B y
2050,
it
c ould depr es s
gr o wth
in
global
agriculture
yields
b y
up
t o
30%, and
r esult
in
additional
c osts
t o
c oast al
urban
ar eas
o f mor e
than
$1
trillion
each
y ear . 2
Curr en t
global
emis sion r eduction
c ommitmen ts
under
the
P aris
Agreemen t
ar e
also insufficien t,
and
w ould
lead
t o
a
t emper a tur e
rise
o f
3.2°C this
c en tury — w ell
o v er
the
1.5°C
t ar get. 3
Compounding this
pr edic amen t,
C O VID - 19
has
exposed
gaps
in
social pr ot ection
s y st ems
and
wider
policies
f or
deliv ering public
goods ,
and
has
highligh t ed
the
underlying
driv er s o f
vulner ability —po v er ty ,
inequality ,
limit ed
social
saf ety nets ,
w eak
health
s y st ems ,
and
structur al
gender
inequality , among
other s .
I t
has
also
height ened
a w ar enes s
o f
all
types o f
risks ,
and
made
a
str ong
case
f or
adopting
risk -inf ormed decision
making.
Ther e
is
an
ur gent
need
t o
addr es s vulner abilities
and
mainstr eam
r esilienc e
t o
manage
futur e s ho c k s ,
i n c l ud i n g
i n c r easing
clima t e -
and
disast er-r ela t ed shocks .
1
Asian
D ev elopmen t
Bank
( ADB).
20 20.
An
U pdat e d
As se s sment
o f
the
E c onomic I mpact
o f
C O VID - 19 .
Manila. h t tps:// www .adb . or g / public a tions/upda t ed- asses smen t- ec onomic-impact- c o vid- 19 .
2
Global
Commis sion
on
Adapt a tion.
2019 .
Adapt N o w :
A
Global Call
f or
L e adership
on Climat e
R e silienc e .
W ashingt on
DC. h t tps:// gc a. or g / global- c ommis sion- on- adapt a tion/ r epor t .
3
U nit ed
N a tions
En vir onmen t
P r o gr amme.
2019 .
Emis sions
Gap
R eport
2019 .
N air obi .
h t tps:// www .unen vir onmen t. or g /in t er activ e / emis sions- gap -r epor t/ 2019/ .
1
Countries
ha v e
an
unprecedented
opportunity
to
use
the
r equired
s ta te
interventions
and ac c ompan ying
s timulus
to
support
a
sus tainable,
inclusiv e,
and
r esilient
futur e;
tackle
the
clima te crisis;
and
la y
the
f ounda tion
f or
long-term
pr osperity .
Go v ernments
can
r ecalibr a te
their
priorities
in the
c onte xt
o f
changing
per ceptions
o f
risks,
including
clima te
and
disas ter
risk,
and
impr o v e
sys tems, r aise
s tandar ds,
and
pur sue
inno v a tiv e
solutions.
W ith
a
clear
vision,
c ountries
can
use
the
r ec o v ery
to drive
in v es tments
and
beha vior al
chang es
tha t
will
r eorient
their
ec onomies
to w ar d
a
mor e
s tr a te gic lo w -carbon
tr ajectory ,
while
simultaneously
addres sing
underlying
vulner abilities
and
s tr engthening r esilienc e.
A dopting
a
lo w -carbon
and
r esilient
r ec o v ery
can
g ener a te
ec onomic
benefits,
cr ea te emplo yment,
incr ease
f ood
and
ener gy
security ,
and
ha v e
s tr ong
health
c o-benefits.
Be y ond
the
emer gency
C O VID - 19
response,
c oun tries need
t o
plan
f or
the
medium-t erm
r ec o v ery
phase, including
ec onomic
stimulus
measur es ,
and
pos sibly
wider acc ompan ying
r ef orms;
and
a
longer-t erm
tr ansf ormation phase
that
c ould
see
wide -r anging
changes
t o
s y st ems , institutions ,
and
policies .
Coun tries
f ac e
an
enormous challenge
in
designing
and
financing
this
r ec o v ery .
L o w - and
middle -inc ome
c oun tries
ha v e
limit ed
fisc al
spac e t o
r espond,
and
man y
will
need
subst an tial
international suppor t
( in
addition
t o
suppor t
alr eady
r ec eiv ed ),
with implic a tions
f or
debt
and
fisc al
positions .
R ec o v ery packages
also
need
t o
be
flexible
t o
acc ommoda t e
the unc er t ain ty
ar ound
the
futur e
o f
the
pandemic,
the pot en tial
f or
futur e
"w a v es ,"
and
the
timeline
f or
dev eloping a
v ac cine.
I n
this
c on t ext,
c oun tries
ma y
find
it
challenging t o
c onsider
long-t erm
benefits
o v er
shor t-t erm
pa y o ff s .
Go v ernmen ts
and
international
financ e
institutions ar e
set
t o
mobiliz e
unpr ec eden t ed
funding— a t
least
$10
trillion—t o
t ackle
and
r ec o v er
fr om
the
C O VID - 19 crisis , 4
and
decisions
made
no w
on
ho w
this
mone y
is spent
will
influenc e
s y st ems
and
institutions ,
cr ea t e as sets ,
and
define
dev elopmen t
dir ections
that
will
last w ell
int o
the
futur e.
Although
go v ernmen ts
ar e
under int ense
pr es sure
t o
embark
on
the
r ec o v ery ,
the y
must learn
fr om
the
les sons
C O VID - 19
has
alr eady
deliv ered, and
a v oid
f a v oring
busines s- as-usual
appr oaches ,
or w or se,
rolling
back
existing
en vir onmen t al
st andar ds . This
appr oach
c ould
lock
in
dec ades
o f
high- c arbon
and
un s u s t a i n a b l e
dev elopmen t,
deepening
existing
inequalities . I nstead,
go v ernmen ts
should
use
the
r ec o v ery
t o
r ecalibr a t e their
dev elopmen t
pa th w a y s .
The
experienc es
gained
fr om dealing
with
C O VID - 19
str engthen
the
case
f or
sc aling
up actions
t o
deal
with
other
imminen t
crises ,
such
as
clima t e change
and
disast er s .
SIGNIFICANT
BENEFIT S
FR O M
A
L O W - CARBON
AND
RESILIENT RE C O VER Y
Adopting
a
lo w - c arbon
and
r esilien t
r ec o v ery
does
not demand
ec onomic
c ompr omise
and
does
not
nec essarily r equir e
an
incr ease
in
t ot al
in v estment
( be y ond
what
w ould otherwise
ha v e
occurr ed ).
Ther e
is
a
long
list
o f
pos sible C O VID - 19
r ec o v ery
interv en tions
that
suppor t
lo w - c arbon dev elopmen t
and
build
clima t e
and
disast er
r esilienc e. Among
these
ar e
dir ect
in v estmen t,
policy
r eform,
and c apacity
building
( i . e.,
har d
and
so ft
measur es)
(see
examples in
Bo x
1).
V ery
f ew
o f
these
interv en tions
ar e
new ;
some
ar e alr eady
being
implemen t ed
in
a
number
o f
c oun tries ,
and other s
ma y
ha v e
been
asses sed
and
turned
do wn
or
delayed. H o w ev er ,
when
c onsider ed
in
the
c on t ext
o f
the
C O VID - 19 r ec o v ery ,
per c eptions
o f
risk
and
the
impor tanc e
o f
managing it
ma y
change,
or
the
w a y
in
which
the
interv ention
w ould
be implemen t ed
ma y
itself
be
aff ected.
Ther e
ar e
new
driv er s f or
these
actions ,
as
man y
r ec o v ery
interv en tions
that
ar e desir able
in
the
c on t ext
o f
C O VID - 19
r ec o v ery
c an
also
S tr ong
clima t e
action
has
the
pot en tial
t o:
GENER A TE
o v er 65
million
ne w
lo w -carbon
jobs
b y
20 30
DELIVER
a t
leas t
$26
trillion
in
net
global
ec onomic
benefits
A V OID
7 00 , 000
pr ema tur e deaths
fr om
air
pollution
a
Global
Commis sion
on
the
E c onom y
and
Clima t e.
2018.
The N ew
Climat e
E conom y .
The N ew
Gr o wth
Ag enda. W ashingt on
DC. h t tps:// new clima t eec onom y .r epor t/ 2018/the -new - gr o wth- agenda/
4
The
Global
Commis sion
on
the
E c onom y
and
Clima t e.
20 20.
NCE
K e y
Me s sag e s
P ack: Special
E dition
on C O VID - 19 .
W ashingt on
DC.
2
impr o v e
clima t e
and
disast er
r esilienc e
or
driv e
lo w - c arbon dev elopmen t,
thus
deliv ering
ec onomic
and
social
benefits in
addition
t o
clima t e
and
r esilienc e
benefits .
D esigning
a lo w - c arbon
and
r esilien t
C O VID - 19
r ec o v ery
will
also
help ADB’ s
DMCs
implemen t
their
c ommitmen ts
under
k ey global
agr eemen ts
including
the
P aris
Agreemen t,
the
Sendai F r amew ork
f or
D isast er
Risk
R eduction
2015 –20 30,
and
the 20 30
Agenda
f or
S ustainable
D ev elopmen t.
NEED
T O
IDENTIFY
MEDIU M - TER M RE C O VER Y
AND
L ONG - TER M TR ANSF OR MA TION
INTER VENTIONS
Some
r ec o v ery
interv en tions
ma y
do
w ell
in
the
short
term, but
not
be
sust ainable
in
the
long
t erm
unles s
acc ompanied b y
policy
or
institutional
changes .
Experience
fr om
the
Global
F inancial
Crisis
o f
2008
pr o vides
impor tant
c on t ext. O nly
ar ound
16%
o f
the
global
f...
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