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G l o b al R e sear c h
13
Mar ch
2020
U S
R e s t aur ants
W h a t " s
t he
D o w nside
F r o m
H e r e ?
A ssessin g
2020 Sce n ar i os
F r am i n g
2020
d o w ns i d e
s c en ar i o
g i ven li m i t ed vi s i b ili t y
&
el eva t ed un c er t ai n t y R es tau ra n ts
c on ti nu e
to
s ee
h ei gh ten ed
s h a re
p ri ce
v o l ati li ty
ami d s t
US
an d
g l ob a l un c ertai n ty
fro m th e
unkno w n COV I D -19 i mp ac t.
W e
attem p t
to
frame
th e
do w n sid e to
s h ares
fro m
h ere,
as s es s i ng
ri s k/ rew ard
r el ati ve
to
c u rren t
l ev el s .
W e
h i gh li gh t earn i ng s
an d
g eo g rap h i c
ex po s u res ,
an d
l ook
at
h i s to ri c al
p rec eden ts
to
h el p
as s e ss po ten ti a l
i mp ac ts .
Wh il e
s ti ll
e arl y ,
mo men tu m
fro m
g en eral l y
s o li d
4 Q
res u l ts
an d
a s tro ng
s tart
to
2020
are
no w
at
ri s k.
W e
b el i eve
h eav il y
fra n c h i s e d
bu s i n es s
mod el s , b al an ce
s h eet
s tren g th , an d c arry ou t/ d e li v ery
emp h as i s
are
mo s t
res ili en t
i n t h e
c u rren t e nv i ronm e nt
( EPS
s en s i ti v i ti es
i n s i d e ) . W e
ex p ec t
th e
b i gg es t
ri s k to
ear n i ng s
r e si d e s
i n c om pany -o w n e d mod el s
an d c as u al
d i n ers , p a rti c u l arl y
th o s e
w / th e
g reates t
l ev erag e.
A ssessi n g
a
p o t e n t i a l
d o w n si d e
s ce na r i o
f o r
R e st au r an t s
i n
2020
W e
frame
a
do w n s i d e
s c enari o fo r 2020 c omp s , un i t
gro w th , an d EBI TDA
ac ro ss
our c o v erag e
fro m
a
po ten ti al
i mp ac t
fro m
COV I D -19.
Uti li z i ng
h i s to r i c al
p rec eden ts ,
w e as s es
do w n s i d e
ri s k
to
our
2020
es ti mates ,
w i th
an
as s um ed
g reates t
i mp ac t
i n
2 Q ( i nc l udi ng
s t or e
c l os ur e s )
a nd
3Q ,
f ol l ow e d
by
i mpr ov e m e nt
i nt o
Q 4.
W e
a ppl y dow ns i de
mu l t i pl e s
t o
t ho s e
a ss u med
l o w ered
es ti mates .
Du e
to
un c er tai n ty
an d li mited
v i s i b ili ty , w e
are
no t
c h an g i ng our
es ti mates , bu t
pro v i d e
th i s
as
a
framew ork w i th
a
w i d e
r an g e
o f
as s ump ti on s .
W i th i n
th i s
framew ork
an d
fro m
an
es ti mates p ers p ec ti v e,
w e
s ee
th e
mo s t
po ten ti a l
earn i ngs
d ow ns i de
i n ca s ua l
di ne r s , a nd mor e li mited
do w n s i d e
i n fran c h i s ed
bu s i n es s
mod el s . Th at
s ai d, c as u al
d i n er s
alrea d y
ap p ear t o pr i ce
i n s i g ni f i ca nt
r i s k, dow n ~ 45%
s i nc e
J a n. 21, now
~ 6 x
on N T M
E BI T D A ( ~ 9. 5x av g. l as t
3 y rs ) . W ha t
d o
we
p re f e r
wi th i n
R es t au r an t s
at c u rr en t
l evel s ?
B as ed
on
our
an al y s i s
an d
as s ump ti on s ,
w e
s ee
fav o rab l e
ri s k/ rew ard
oppo rt un i t i e s d es p i te
th e
mar ket
v o l ati li ty
& ec ono mi c
un c er tai n ty , w i th
t h e
s ec to r do w n ~ 35 %
s i n ce Jan .
21
( v s .
SPX
~25 %) .
Cu rren tl y
w e
p refer
h eav il y
fra nc hi s e d
bu s i ne ss
m ode l s ,
w / h eal th y
fran c h i s ees
w /
l o w er
op erati ng
l ev erag e,
an d
c arry ou t/ d el i v ery
em ph as i s .
W e c on ti nu e
to
b el i eve
Q SR
an d
Y UM
rep res en t
res ili en t
bu s i n es s
mod el s ,
w /
s c al e
an d d i v ers i fi c ati on,
an d
qu a li ty
b ran d s
to
s uppo rt
d efen s i ve
gro w t h
a nd
a
c om pe lli ng ri s k/ rew ard .
W e
al s o
no te
li k el y
res ili en cy
as
M CD
&
DPZ,
bo th
o f
w h i c h
mai n tai n e d mo men tu m
h e ad i ng
i n to
2020
( i n c l .
fa v o rab l e
Jan / F eb .
M CD
fran c h i s ee
c h ecks ) ,
w / h eav il y
fran c h i s ed
mod el s
& s t rong fran c h i s ee s . W i th i n c as u a l
d i n i ng, w e
s ee
DR I
an d TX R H
as
qu al i t y
bu s i n e ss es ,
w /
b ran d s
th at
p erfo rmed
b etter
th an
p eers
du ri ng
th e fi n an c i al
c ri s i s
( O li ve
G ard en ) , s tro ng b a l an ce
s h eets
an d o t h er
res ili en t
attri bu tes .
D en n i s
G ei g er ,
CFA A na l ys t de nni s .ge i ge r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
9313
Ryan
K i dd Asso c i a t e
An a l y st r ya n.k i dd@ ubs .co m
+1 -212-713-4708
Rebecca
Der hy Asso c i a t e
An a l y st r e be cca .de r hy@ u bs .com
+1 -212-713
1493
www .u b s.co m / i n vest m en t r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p rep ared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANAL YS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
14 .
UB S
do es
an d s eeks
to
do
bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp an i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h r ep o rts .
As
a
re s u l t , i n v es t o rs
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v i ty
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. Res t aur ant s
Am er i cas
Equit ies
O ut l i n i ng
a
D ow ns i de Sc enar i o
f or 2020
Give n
co n t inu e d
m a rk e t
vo la t i lit y,
co n ce rn
a round
a
s ign if ica n t
up co ming
COV I D - 19
i m pa c t
a c r os s
t he
U S
a nd
gl oball y ,
a nd
i ndi c a t i ons
of
m a c ro
di s r upt i on
t hi s y ea r,
w e
e x a m i ne
pot e nt i a l
d ow ns i de
s c e na r i os
a c r os s
our
c ov e r a ge
uni v e r s e .
W e e xp e ct
COV I D -19
i mp a c t s
c ould
s i gni f i c a nt l y
l ow e r
c ons um e r
de m a nd
a nd
r e duc e s uppl y
( r e s t a ur a nt
c l os ur e s ) ,
w i t h
onl y
m ode s t
of f s e t s
li k e l y
f rom
l ow e r
i nt e r e s t r a t e s
a nd
r e duc e d
ga s / e ne r gy
c os t s .
I n
f r a m i ng
t he
dow ns i de
s c e na r i o,
w e
ut ili z e d hi s t or i c a l
pr e c e de nt s ,
c urr e n t
c ondi t i ons
/
i m pa c t s
i n
s e l e c t
c ount r i e s ,
a nd
i ns i ght s f rom
c orpor a t e
m a nage m e nt
t ea m s .
W e
r e c ogni z e
hi s t or i c a l
ea rni ngs
s ens i t i v i t i e s m a y
di ff e r
s om e
l ook i ng
a he a d,
gi v e n
t he
pot e nt i a l
m a gni t ude
of
s a l e s
de c li ne s ,
a s w e ll
a s
t he
p ot e nt i a l
f or
c om pa ni e s
t o
m a nage
c os t s
a nd
f l e x
t he
P & L
on
t he dow ns i de .
I n
our
a na l y s i s ,
w e :
1) f l e x e d
dow n
our
2020E
sss
a nd
f l e x e d
up
our
t e mpor a r y
uni t
c l os ur e es t i mat es
l ar g el y
b as ed
on
s ec t or
c at eg or i es
/
s eg m e n t s
(Q SR ,
c as u a l dini ng)
a nd
c h a nnel s
( de li v e r y ,
c a rr y out ,
din e - i n) ;
2) m a de
ope r a t i ng
de l e v e r a ge
a nd
a dj.
E BI T D A
i m pa c t
a ss um pt i ons
f or
ea c h s e gm e nt ,
ow ne r s hip
s t r uc t ur e
( f r a nc hi s e d,
c om pany - ow ned) ,
a nd i ndi v idual
br a nds
ba s e d
on
our
e s t i m a t e d
ea rni ngs
s ens i t i v i t i e s
a nd c onv e r s a t i on s
w i t h
m a nage m e nt ;
a nd
3) a ppl i e d
our
d ow ns i de
v a l ua t i on
c a s e
mul t i pl e s
( E V / E BI T D A )
t o
t ho s e dow ns i de
s c e n a r i os .
F i g u r e
1 :
D o w ns i d e
Su mm ar y
Tab l e
Ti c ker
C u rr e n t
P r ic e
D o w n si d e Sc en ar i o
%
D o w n si d e
%
C h an g e Si n c e
J an .
21
Q SR
$42.73
$39
-9 %
- 35%
JACK
$39.65
$34
- 14%
- 51%
DR I
$59.17
$50
- 15%
- 48%
CAK E
$21.48
$17
- 20%
- 46%
WE N
$15.62
$12
- 22%
- 28%
DNKN
$54.46
$42
- 23%
- 31%
SB UX
$62.10
$47
- 24%
- 33%
PZZA
$47.82
$36
- 25%
- 26%
T X R H
$40.72
$30
- 26%
- 30%
M CD
$170.13
$124
- 27%
- 19%
EAT
$17.18
$12
- 29%
- 61%
YU M
$78.45
$54
- 31%
- 26%
CM G
$603.00
$406
- 33%
- 31%
DPZ
$317.11
$190
- 40%
11%
S our ce :
F ac t Set , C omp an y
r ep or t s , U B S
est i mat es
K ey t akea w a ys :
1)
W e
be li e v e
Re s t a ur a nt
s e c t or
s ha r e s
a l r ea dy
pr i c e
i n
a
not a bl e imp a ct,
w h il e
do w n s i d e
r is k
s t ill
e xi s t s
f rom
CO V ID -19
a nd
t he
br oade r
e c onom i c i m pa c t .
2)
C a s ua l
di ne r s
a r e
pr i c i ng
i n
a
mor e
s i gni f i c a nt
pot e nt i a l
r e duc t i on
t o ear n i ng s
l ev el s ,
wi t h
s h ar e s
d ow n
~45%
on
a v g.
a c r os s
our
c ov e r a ge
s i nc e
J a nua r y
21. 3)
Q S Rs
a r e
pr i c i ng
i n
l e ss
ea rning s
d ow ns i de
e x po s ur e ,
w i t h
s ha r e s
dow n
~25%
a c r os s
our
c ov e r a ge .
4)
I n
or de r
t o
m a nage
r i s k
f rom
he r e ,
w e
pr e f e r:
he a v il y
f r a nc h i s e d
b us i n e ss
m odel s
w i t h
l ow e r
ope r a t i ng
l e v e r a ge
a nd
c o s t i m pa c t s ,
he a l t hy
ba l a nc e
s he e t s ,
a nd
s t rong
f r a nc hi s ee s
( l ow
l e v e r a ge ,
s ol i d m a rgi ns ) .
W e
f a v or
i nc r ea s e d
e x po s ur e
t o
c a rr y out
a nd
de li v e r y
ov e r
di ne -in. Br oade r
e c onom i c
c ha ll e nge s
w ould
r e s ul t
i n
a
pr e f e r e nc e
f or
l ow e r
pr i c e d
opt ion s t ha t
c ould
s ee
a
t r a de
dow n
bene f i t .
F i g u r e
2 :
H e a v il y
f r an ch i se d
b us i n e ss
m o d e l s
ma i n t a i n
l o w e r
o p e r a t i n g l e v e r a g e
an d
l o w
E P S
se n sit i v i t y
t o
ch an g e s
i n
g l o b a l
ss s.
A cr o ss
t h e
se ct o r ,
w e e x p e ct
a
f o cu s
o n
mana g i n g
co sts/ ma r g i ns
a g a i n st p o t e n t i a ll y
si z a b l e
sa l e s d e cl i n e s ,
w h i c h
c o u l d
i mpa c t
o u r
e st i ma t e d
e a r ...
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