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A m id
C a m p a ign
T u r m o il ,
B i de n
H o l ds W i de L e a ds on
C o r on a v ir u s ,
U n if y in g
t h e
C ou n tr y
M os t
T r u m p ,
B i d en
su pp or t er s
SA y
t hei r
d i ff er en c e s
g o
b ey on d pol i c i es
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‘ cor e
A m er i c A n
v A l u e s
A n d
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The 2020 presidential campaign has been repeatedly rocked by seismic events – from the outbreak of a devastating pandemic to President Donald Trump contracting COVID- 19. Yet in at least two important respects, not much has changed: Joe Biden continues to hold sizable advantages over Trump on most major issues and key personal traits, as well as in overall voter preferences. And voters continue to be highly focused on the election and attach great importance to its outcome.
With less than a month to go before the election, a majority of registered voters (57%) say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus, while 40% express a similar level of confidence in Trump. In June, Biden held a narrower, 11 percentage point lead on handling the coronavirus outbreak (52% Biden, 41% Trump).
At a time of deep political divisions and partisan antipathy, voters are far more likely to express confidence in Biden than Trump to unify the country. Half of voters (50%) say they are confident in Biden to “bring the country closer together,” compared with just 30% who express confidence in Trump.
The new survey by Pew Research Center, Biden
has
overall
lead
over
Trump
and holds
advantages
on
most
issues
%
of
r eg ist e r e d
voters
w h o
s ay, i f t he e lectio n wer e h eld tod ay, th ey would
vote
f or
…
NET
Trump/Lean Trump
Biden/Lean Biden
Other
All voters 42 52
6
%
of
r eg ist e r e d
vot e rs
w h o
a r e very /somew ha t confident t ha t
can do
each of
t he f ollowin g
Note: Based on registered voters. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5, 2020. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5 among 11,929 U.S. adults, including 10,543 registered voters, finds that
Biden maintains an overall lead in voter preferences: 52% of registered voters say if the election were held today, they would vote for Biden or lean toward voting for him, while 42% support or lean toward voting for Trump. Another 4% of voters back Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, while 1% support Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins in the 2020 election. (See detailed tables for full demographic breaks on voter preferences.)
The survey was in the field when Trump announced on Twitter, early on the morning of Oct. 2, that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted COVID-19. There are no significant differences in voter preferences, or in confidence in the two candidates to handle the impact of the coronavirus, before and after his announcement.
Trump’s handling of the nation’s economy remains a relative strong point. About half of voters (52%) express confidence in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy, one of the highest shares expressing confidence in the president on any of the six issues on the survey. However, about as many voters (51%) have confidence in Biden on the economy.
Since summer, there has been some improvement in views of the nation’s economy. Among all voters, 35% say economic conditions are excellent or good, up from 28% in June. However, this change has come almost entirely among Trump supporters. And the gap in economic perceptions, already wide, has grown much wider. Two-thirds (67%) of Trump supporters now say that economic conditions are excellent or good, compared with 51% who said this in June. Just 11% of Biden supporters view economic conditions positively, which is little changed from four months ago (9%).
The survey finds that voters view Biden much more positively than Trump for compassion, honesty and being a good role model. Nearly twice as many voters say “compassionate” describes Biden very or fairly well than say it applies to Trump (67% vs. 34%). More than half of voters (53%) say Biden is honest, compared with 35% who describe Trump as honest. And far more voters say Biden is a good role model (54% vs. 28%).
3
The gap is narrower on other personal attributes. Biden holds a narrow 6-point edge in “courageous” (54% Biden, 48% Trump); slightly more say Trump than Biden is mentally e
sharp (50% Trump, 46% n
Biden). Among six personal traits included, Trump holds n
his widest edge in standing up
6
for his beliefs: 69% say this describes Trump very or fairly n
8 well, compared with 61% who say it describes Biden well. n
The share of Biden supporters who back him strongly has p increased since August, though he still trails Trump in strong p support. A 57% majority of voters who favor Biden say they support him strongly. Biden drew strong backing from fewer than half of his
supporters (46%) two months ago. About two-thirds of those who back Trump (68%) say they support him strongly.
As was the case in the summer, voters’ preferences – regardless of whom they favor – remain very much centered on Trump. Just 36% of Biden voters view their vote more as an expression of support for the former vice president; 63% view it as vote against Trump. By contrast, 71% of Trump supporters say their vote is a vote for Trump. These views have changed only modestly since June.
The supporters of both candidates remain highly engaged in the election. Identical shares of registered voters who favor Trump and Biden (71% each) say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates running for president. And nearly eight-in-ten voters (78%) – again, comparable majorities of both candidates’ supporters – say it “really matters” who wins. Far
more
voters
describe
Biden
than
Trump
as compassionate
and
a
good
role
model
%
of
r eg ist e r e d
vot e rs
w h o
sa y
d e scrib e s
each can did a t e ve r y
or fa ir ly
well
Very Fairly NET Advantag
Trump
15
19
34
Bide
Biden 35 33
67
+3
Trump
8
20
28
Bide A
good
role
model
Biden 25 29 54
+2
Trump
12
23
35
Bide
Biden 23 31 53
+1
Trump 31 17 48
Bide Courageous
Biden 23 31 54
+6
Trump 30 21 50
Tru
Biden 14 33 46
+4
Stands
up
for
Trump 46 23
69
Tru what
he
believes
in
Biden 30 31 61
+8
Note: Based on registered voters. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5, 2020. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
While voters on both sides share a sense of the importance of the election, they also share concern about the country’s future if the opposing candidate wins. Fully 89% of Trump supporters say that if Biden wins, they not only would be very concerned over the country’s direction, they believe it would lead to “lasting harm” for the country. A nearly identical majority of Biden supporters (90%) say Trump’s election would result in lasting harm to the United States.
And voters who support both Trump and Biden say their differences extend beyond policies to disagreements over core values. Overwhelming shares of voters who support each candidate say that, when asked to think about those who favor their opposing candidate, they not only have different views on politics and policies, they also have “fundamental disagreements on core American values and goals.”
Roughly eight-in-ten of those who support Biden (80%) and Trump (77%) say they fundamentally disagree about core values; only about one-in-five say their differences are limited to politics and policies.
However, there is a widespread sense among voters that if their candidate wins the election, the next president should primarily focus on the concerns of all Americans, not just those who voted for him. This view – like the belief that the country may face lasting harm if the opposing candidate wins – is shared widely among the supporters of both candidates. Fully 89% of Biden supporters and 86% of Trump supporters say that if their candidate is victorious, he should focus primarily on the concerns of all Americans, even if it means disappointing some of his supporters. Only
about
one-in-five
Trump
and
Biden
supporters
say they
share
the
same
core
American
values
and
goals
%
of
r eg ist e r e d
vot e rs
w h o
sa y …
Not only do we have
We have different priorities different priorities when it
when it comes to politics, comes to politics, but we
but we share a fundamental fundamentally disagree
commitment to the same about core American values
core American values Views of Trump supporters 80
18
among Biden voters
Views of Biden supporters among Trump voters 77
22
Notes: Based on registered voters. No response answers not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5, 2020. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
1. The
Trump-Biden
presidential
contest
With less than a month until Election Day, Joe Biden maintains his lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race. Today, 52% of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would cast their vote for Biden; a smaller share of registered voters say they would cast their ballot for Trump (42%). Jo Jorgensen captures 4% of registered voters while Howie Hawkins garners 1% support.
As was the case in 2016 at a similar point in the presidential campaign, voters feel certain about their choices: 89% of Biden voters say they are certain to support their preferred candidate; 87% of Trump voters say the same. Only small shares of either candidate’s supporters say there is a chance they will change their mind (less than 10% of each).
Biden
maintains
lead
over
Trump;
most voters
are
certain
about
their
choice
%
o f r eg ister e d
voters
w h o
s ay, i f t he e lectio n wer e h eld tod ay, th ey would
vote
f or
…
%
w h o
sa y, w hen it
c om e s
to
t he ir
can did a t e pr efe r ence …
Notes: Based on registered voters. No answer responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5, 2020. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Trump, however, continues to hold an advantage in the share of his voters who say they support him strongly ...
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