美国寿险业2020年展望：寿险股会何去何从

时间：2022-07-18 16:45:03 来源：网友投稿

下面是小编为大家整理的美国寿险业2020年展望：寿险股会何去何从,供大家参考。

　 al n r

　 d e

　tr s

　CORE

　U.S. Insurance/Life

　2020 Outlook: Where Are Life Insurance Stocks Headed from Here?

　Life Insurance Stocks Likely Range-bound in 2020 Following Strong Recovery in

　 INDUSTRY UPDATE

　 U.S. Insurance/Life NEUTRAL Unchanged

　Equity Research

　6 January 2020

　2019. Life stocks rebounded strongly in 2019, up 20% compared to a 25% gain for the P&C Insurance stocks, ~29% increase for Financials, and ~29% gain in the S&P 500. Looking ahead, we envision modest EPS growth potential for the majority of life insurance stocks resulting from sustained low interest rates and mostly flat yield curve. VOYA, AMP, and EQH are the only life stocks we envision generating 10%+ core operating EPS growth in 2020 mostly driven by share repurchase.

　Low Rates Remain a Headwind. We expect investors to maintain a less-constructive stance on the life insurance stocks as long as the 10-year US Treasury yield remains below 2%. Low rates would probably remain a drag on earnings as long as the US 10- year yield remains below 3%. Still, life insurers remain focused on improving top-line growth, expanding margins, and generating robust cash flow.

　Although our industry view is Neutral for both Life and P&C insurance, we prefer the P&C sector based on its favorable pricing power and less pressure from low rates.

　Current Valuations Seem Reasonable. An average current forward P/E multiple of 7x for the bellwether life insurers seems reasonable in the current rate environment. Notably, there is currently a wide range of P/E multiples among life insurers with companies having less exposure to low rates and above-average ROEs (AFL and GL) currently valued at 12x and 14x, respectively. Companies with large annuity businesses (LNC, EQH, BHF) or long-term care exposure (UNM) have the lowest P/E multiples in the sector at 4x-6x.

　Most of the Life stocks are currently valued at-or-below their median historical P/E although this seems justified. We envision little upside potential to ’20 EPS expectations and also doubt P/Es would expand.

　Investor sentiment appears to be improving on MET (based on its strong presence in US group insurance), AMP (based on its favorable growth and margin profile), and VOYA (based on its 10%+ EPS growth potential, exit from legacy businesses, and elevated pace of share buybacks).

　Meanwhile, sentiment appears less favorable for PRU and LNC due to lowered expectations as well as increasing earnings volatility, as well as UNM based on its persistent exposure to legacy long-term care insurance. For AFL , we believe the future direction of its shares largely depends on how quickly the Japan Post sales practices controversy can be resolved so that growth can resume, which may not occur until 2H 20, in our view.

　For a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.

　 U.S. Insurance/Life Jay Gelb, CFA +1 212 526 1561

　jay.gelb@barclays.com BCI, US

　Anthony Aron +1 212 526 6096

　anthony.aron@barclays.com BCI, US

　John Dunigan

　+1 212 526 2607

　john.dunigan2@barclays.com BCI, US

　 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

　PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 51.

　Barclays | U.S. Insurance/Life

　 Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)

　Company

　Rating

　Old New

　Price

　31-Dec-19

　 Old

　Price Target

　New %Chg

　 Old

　EPS FY1 (E) New %Chg

　 Old

　EPS FY2 (E) New %Chg

　U.S. Insurance/Life

　Neu Neu

　Ameriprise Financial (AMP) OW

　OW 166.58

　190.00

　200.00

　16.23

　18.50

　AXA Equitable Holdings Inc. (EQH)

　EW 24.78

　22.00

　24.00

　4.60

　4.85

　Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHF)

　UW 39.23

　30.00

　32.00

　4.80

　9.50

　Globe Life Inc. (GL)

　UW 105.25

　75.00

　84.00

　12 6.75

　6.75

　7.30

　MetLife Inc. (MET) OW

　OW 50.97

　59.00

　60.00

　5.53

　6.10

　Principal Financial Group (PFG) OW

　OW 55.00

　66.00

　5.58

　5.59

　6.00

　Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.

　Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative

　2020 Life Insurer Results Should Be Decent In 2020, we expect 7% median core EPS growth for the life insurers, although the end-result may be better or worse for many life insurers depending on equity market performance and the direction of the 10-year US Treasury yield. At this early stage, we still anticipate life stocks to generate a solid 13% median operating ROE through 2020.

　 FIGURE 1

　Life Insurer Expectations EPS Estimate ROE Estimate

　 Price 2018A

　 2019E 2020E

　Excluding AOCI Ticker

　Rating

　12/31/19

　Operating Core Barclays

　 19E / 18A

　 Consensus

　 Barclays

　 20E / 19E

　Consensus 2018A

　2019E 2020E

　Life Insurance

　 MET

　$50.97

　$5.39

　$5.49

　$5.53

　$5.52

　$6.10

　10%

　$6.05

　13%

　12%

　PRU

　93.74

　11.69

　12.39

　11.21

　(4%)

　$11.64

　12.50

　11%

　$12.45

　13%

　12%

　UNM

　29.16

　5.20

　5.43

　$5.41

　5.80

　$5.76

　13%

　12%

　LNC

　59.01

　8.48

　8.49

　6.50

　(23%)

　$6.76

　9.50

　46%

　$10.04

　14%

　13%

　PFG

　55.00

　5.53

　5.49

　5.58

　$5.58

　6.00

　$5.95

　14%

　13%

　AMP

　166.58

　14.63

　14.83

　16.23

　11%

　$16.19

　18.50

　14%

　$18.01

　37%

　39%

　41%

　AFL

　52.90

　4.16

　4.46

　$4.42

　4.45

　(0%)

　$4.44

　15%

　14%

　EQH

　24.78

　3.89

　4.60

　18%

　$4.62

　4.85

　$4.81

　15%

　17%

　16%

　VOYA

　60.98

　4.04

　4.88

　4.47

　11%

　$4.79

　4.25

　(5%)

　$5.86

　11%

　BHF

　39.23

　7.44

　8.12

　4.80

　(36%)

　$6.31

　9.50

　98%

　$9.77

　105.25

　6.13

　6.75

　10%

　$6.76

　7.30

　$7.19

　15%

　14%

　Median

　 14%

　13%

　 Source: Company Data, Barclays Research, Bloomberg

　Note: PRU, MET, and PFG ROE are ex AOCI other than foreign currency translation adjustments.

　Barclays US Life Insurance Industry View: Neutral. Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight.

　 FIGURE 2

　Life Insurer ‘20E Core EPS Growth

　15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% BHF AMP PFG GL UNM PRU LNC EQH MET AFL VOYA

　Source: Company Data, Barclays Research

　 Life Insurer Valuations Have Expanded The median life insurer P/E valuation expanded over the course of 2019, which we believe reflects the benefit of rising equity markets on asset management-related revenues, and, to a lesser extent, investors absorbing that interest rates are likely to remain lower for longer. Sustained low rates are likely to depress life insurers’ EPS growth although we would not view it as a capital-constraining issue.

　12.6% 12.2% Median = 6.5% 8.9% 8.2% 6.8% 6.5% 6.0%

　5.6% 2.7% -0.2% Includes impact from

　announced sale of Life business

　-14.1%

　Share Price Performance: 2019 Share Price Performance: Since March 2009 Low

　29% 29%

　 Dow Jones US Life Dow Jones US P&C

　S&P 500 S&P Financials

　S&P 500 S&P Financials Dow Jones US P&C Dow Jones US Life

　Insurance Index

　Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

　 We view our covered life insurers’ current median valuations as compressed at 9x 2020E EPS and 1.1x trailing book value ex-AOCI, although valuation multiples have meaningfully recovered from year-end 2018. However, we doubt valuations would meaningfully expand from current levels unless significant near-term headwinds abate including a 10-year yield around 2%, as well as a mostly flat yield curve.

　Most life insurers are currently valued at-or-below their 5- and 10-year historical median P/E with the exception of AFL and GL which are currently valued above the median level. Notably, LNC and UNM are currently valued near their trough historical P/E valuations.

　 FIGURE 5

　Life Insurance: P/E Valuation Last Five Years Last Ten Years

　20x

　 18x

　 16x

　 14x

　 12x

　 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x 0x

　 MET PRU LNC UNM AFL PF G AMP GL VOYA EQH BHF

　 20x

　16x

　12x

　MET PRU LNC UNM AFL PF G AMP GL VOYA EQH BHF

　Source: SNL Financial, Bloomberg, Barclays Research

　Media n Current

　25%

　20%

　330%

　340%

　351%

　305%

　Media n Current

　FIGURE 6

　Barclays Life Insurance Benchmark 1 – Forward P/E FIGURE 7

　Barclays Life Insurance Benchmark – Trailing Price/Book Value (ex-AOCI)

　 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

　 Life Insurer Dividend Yields Remain Elevated The dividend yields of several life insurers, including PRU, AMP, LNC, UNM and PFG, have declined from peak levels although mostly remain above historical median levels. The current dividend yields appear to be signalling that the life insurance stocks remain out of favor with many investors. Notably, we expect life insurers’ dividends to increase over time.

　(continued on next page)

　1 Barclays life insurance benchmark is market-cap weighted and includes MET, PRU, AMP, AFL, PFG, LNC, UNM, GL.

　2.5

　Financial

　Crisis 2.0

　European

　Crisis 1.5

　 1.0

　 0.5

　 0.0

　20 18 16 14 12 10 8

　Financial Crisis European

　Crisis

　5.0%

　4.5%

　4.0%

　3.5%

　3.0%

　2.5%

　2.0%

　1.5%

　1.0%

　0.5%

　0.0%

　M e d ia n :

　2 . 7 %

　5.0%

　4.5%

　4.0%

　3.5%

　3.0%

　2.5%

　2.0%

　1.5%

　1.0%

　0.5%

　0.0%

　M e d ia n :

　2 . 3 %

　FIGURE 8

　Life Insurer Historical Dividend Yield (Last Ten Years) PRU AMP AFL

　5.5%

　 .3%

　11.0%

　10.0%

　9.0%

　8.0%

　7.0%

　6.0%

　5.0%

　4.0%

　3.0%

　2.0%

　1.0%

　0.0%

　 2.0%

　 LNC UNM PFG 9.0%

　 7.5%

　 6.0%

　 4.5%

　 3.0%

　 1.5%

　 0.0%

　 ...

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