美国大型银行业2020年展望：过去、现与未来（全文）

时间：2022-07-18 14:55:02 来源：网友投稿

下面是小编为大家整理的美国大型银行业2020年展望：过去、现与未来（全文）,供大家参考。

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　U.S. Large-Cap Banks 2020 Outlook

　Past, Present & Yet to Come: As Things Change, They Stay the Same

　While our price targets imply less upside heading into 2020 (up ~20%) than 2019

　SECTOR UPDATE

　U.S. Large-Cap Banks POSITIVE Unchanged

　Equity Research

　6 January 2020

　(up ~40%), we believe the U.S. Large-Cap banks continue to have the ability to rise and outperform the market. Like in 2019, we expect our coverage to benefit from continued earnings/book value growth, active capital management, ‘regulatory finalization’, and an increasing benefit from leveraging technology/economies of scale at a still discounted valuation (63% forward P/E relative to the S&P 500 approximates lowest level since 2002, over a 9% all-in yield). Furthermore, should the economic backdrop be more challenging than our base case, we believe this group will prove to be more defensive than investors appreciate. In the near term, we caution the BKX outperformed the S&P 500 by 479bps in 4Q19. Since 1997, the BKX has outperformed by more than 250bps in 4Q six other times. In five of those six instances, the BKX underperformed the following January. With net interest margin comps challenging in 1H20, we expect EPS growth for 2020 to remain in the mid-single digit area, driven by share repurchase. Still, EPS growth should accelerate as the year progresses and into 2021. Relative to 2019, we expect 2020 results to reflect: relatively stable net interest income owing to continued loan growth (broad-based but modest) offset by a lower net interest margin (though stabilizing early in the year); varied fee income trends (higher service charge/credit card fees, mixed capital markets trends, lower mortgage fees); controlled costs (though positive operating leverage tough early in the year); a higher loan loss provision (off a low base, CECL implementation playing a varying role) with a modest upward bias to NPA and NCO ratio (from loan losses at half their historical average); a higher tax rate (2019 was lower than expected); a reduced share count (though payout ratios could decline in 2H20); and a lower core preferred dividend (several redemptions in 2H19).

　Following 2019’s P/E multiple moves (median bank +3.3pts) and our updated price targets, we are making some rating changes. We are upgrading BAC from EW to OW (significant improvement in its consumer banking franchise) and downgrading the shares of WFC from OW to EW (meaningful multiple expansion in 2019 better captures near-term efficiency ratio improvement possibilities). Among the Regionals, we are upgrading CFG and FITB from EW to OW (two of the cheaper regional banks despite both improving their offensive and defensive positioning) and downgrading FRC from OW to EW (7.5 points of multiple expansion in 2019 better reflects franchise value).

　For 2020, we expect continued (albeit possibly slower) GDP growth, relatively stable interest rates, and record low unemployment – not a bad backdrop for this group. Still, several uncertainties could factor into corporate/consumer confidence, economic growth, and the ultimate path of interest rates, including the U.S.-China trade conflict, weakness in manufacturing, and the upcoming Presidential election, to name a few. Furthermore, changes to loan loss reserve accounting could complicate matters.

　For a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.

　 U.S. Large-Cap Banks Jason M. Goldberg, CFA

　+1 212 526 8580

　jason.goldberg@barclays.com BCI, US

　Brian Morton, CFA +1 212 526 2163

　brian.morton@barclays.com BCI, US

　Inna Blyakher

　+1 212 526 3904

　inna.blyakher@barclays.com BCI, US

　Matthew Kesselhaut +1 212 526 0181

　matthew.kesselhaut@barclays.com BCI, US

　Eugene Koysman

　+1 212 526 0971

　Eugene.Koysman@barclays.com BCI, US

　 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

　PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 181.

　 Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)

　Company Rating Old New Price 03-Jan-20

　 Old

　Price Target New %Chg EPS FY1 (E) Old New %Chg EPS FY2 (E) Old New %Chg U.S. Large-Cap Banks Pos Pos

　Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)

　OW 30.39

　40.00

　45.00 13 3.75

　3.75

　4.20

　Bank of America (BAC) EW

　OW 34.90

　36.00

　43.00 19 2.71

　2.70 0

　2.95

　3.00 2

　Capital One Financial (COF) OW

　OW 102.00

　114.00

　136.00 19 11.13

　11.13

　12.00

　11.95 0

　Citigroup Inc. (C)

　OW 79.70

　86.00

　98.00 14 7.72

　7.72

　8.35

　Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)

　OW 39.91

　43.00

　49.00 14 3.82

　3.80 -1

　4.05

　3.95 -2

　Comerica Inc. (CMA)

　UW 70.66

　73.00

　79.00 8

　7.83

　7.80 0

　7.30

　7.10 -3

　Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)

　OW 30.44

　34.00

　38.00 12 2.80

　2.79 0

　3.05

　3.00 -2

　First Republic Bank (FRC)

　EW 117.67

　110.00

　126.00 15 5.05

　5.06 0

　5.45

　5.40 -1

　Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)

　EW 231.58

　242.00

　267.00 10 21.55

　21.80 1

　25.00

　24.65 -1

　Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) EW

　EW 14.81

　16.00

　17.00 6

　1.32

　1.31 -1

　1.35

　JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

　OW 138.34

　140.00

　168.00 20 10.35

　10.40 0

　10.60

　KeyCorp (KEY)

　UW 19.91

　19.00

　23.00 21 1.70

　1.70

　1.95

　M&T Bank (MTB) OW

　OW 169.32

　200.00

　207.00 4

　13.87

　13.93 0

　14.05

　14.00 0

　Morgan Stanley (MS) EW

　EW 51.20

　55.00

　60.00 9

　5.03

　4.90 -3

　5.25

　5.20 -1

　Northern Trust (NTRS)

　EW 105.37

　109.00

　118.00 8

　6.70

　6.68 0

　7.05

　7.00 -1

　PNC Financial Services Gp (PNC) EW

　EW 158.83

　158.00

　181.00 15 11.33

　11.33

　12.10

　Regions Financial (RF)

　UW 16.77

　17.00

　19.00 12 1.53

　1.53

　1.65

　State Street (STT)

　OW 79.57

　72.00

　96.00 33 5.65

　5.70 1

　6.25

　6.35 2

　SVB Financial Group (SIVB)

　OW 250.33

　275.00

　294.00 7

　21.58

　21.37 -1

　20.00

　The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) OW

　OW 50.27

　57.00

　63.00 11 4.03

　4.03

　4.15

　Truist Financial Corp. (TFC)

　EW 56.20

　59.00

　65.00 10 4.05

　3.96 -2

　4.40

　U.S. Bancorp (USB)

　OW 58.51

　64.00

　71.00 11 4.33

　4.33

　4.40

　Wells Fargo (WFC)

　EW 53.42

　55.00

　59.00 7

　4.47

　4.50 1

　4.45

　4.35 -2

　Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

　OW 51.70

　56.00

　62.00 11 4.30

　4.30

　4.40

　Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.

　Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative

　 CONTENTS

　YET TO COME – A LOOK AT THE YEAR AHEAD (2020 OUTLOOK) . 5 Bank Stock Outlook: As things change, they stay the same ................................... 5

　Earnings Outlook: Slow growth but sound profitability ....................................... 25

　Capital Outlook: Dividends continue, share repurchase to ebb ............................. 52

　Regulatory Outlook: Almost finalized, for now ................................................. 58

　Political Outlook: Checks & balances .............................................................. 66

　Accounting Outlook: The dawn of CECL ..................................................... 72 Technology Outlook: Pace of innovation should accelerate ............................ 76 M&A Outlook: M&A is secular with more MOEs needed ....................................... 91

　THE PRESENT – A LOOK AT THE PAST YEAR (2019 REVIEW) .. 95 Performance Review: Rise and outperform despite rate jolt ................................ 95

　A Year in Review: Macro headlines drove volatility .......................................... 101

　M&A Review: Deal count little changed, but deal value up ................................. 106

　THE PAST – A LOOK AT THE PAST 26 YEARS (1991-2018) .... 121 History does not repeat, but it does rhyme .................................................... 121

　Historical price performance charts .............................................................. 137

　This marks the 16th straight year we are publishing our Charles Dickens’s “A Christmas Carol” inspired report at the

　start of the trading year. In “A Christmas Carol”, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Yet to Come. Each year, we aim to examine bank stocks through each of these three lenses in an effort to better tackle the year ahead.

　In March we will also celebrate the 16th birthday of our daily Bank Brief e-mail.

　This product is intended to provide you with everything you need to know for the trading day ahead. Let us know if you would like to receive it each morning.

　2020 Conference Dates

　London: May 12-13, 2020

　New York: September 14-16, 2020

　Analyst homepage:

　https://live.barcap.com/go/research/analyst/LB00427

　 YET TO COME – A LOOK AT THE YEAR AHEAD (2020 OUTLOOK) Bank Stock Outlook: As things change, they stay the same

　Executive Summary Before we delve into our expectations for 2020, we wanted to take a brief look back at our expectations for 2019 (Past, Present & Yet to Come: Less Good Doesn’t Mean Bad, Buy Banks, 1/2/19), given our thesis for 2020 has not changed dramatically. At the very beginning of 2019, we stated we believed the U.S. Large-Cap bank stocks had the ability to rise and outperform the S&P 500 in 2019, with group benefiting from continued earnings/book value growth, active capital management, ‘regulatory finalization’, and an increasing benefit from leveraging technology/economies of scale. We also stated should the economic backdrop be more challenging than our base case (which at the time included two 25bp Fed hikes for 2019 versus actual results of 75bps o...