下面是小编为大家整理的大石油与气候：行动胜于空谈（全文完整）,供大家参考。
W e
loo k a t B ig
Oils’ revised
clima te ambition s; six
E U
m ajors now
aiming
f or long-term decarbonisation
and/ or ‘net zero’ In our view
t he
ne xt 5
y ears o f action
could
be
a
crucial
litmu s test for cr edibili ty and
fe asibili ty o f strate gies
W e
discu ss wha t ‘net zero’ loo ks like
for an
oil
compan y in p ract i c e , and
t he
challenge s with
‘Paris align ed ’ aspirations Rece nt w ave
of c li mate
strategy
rev i s ion s
mea n s
am bition s
are
ra i se d acr o ss
th e bo ar d in Eu r op e , with th e
U S now fu rther
b e hind. We’ve seen all six European IOCs in
our co v erage
r amp
up
c lima t e
ambi t ion s in
r e c en t m on t h s, wi t h
U S c ompanie s st i ck ing
t o
e x i st ing
(s hor t er- t erm) plan s. T he
E uropean s are
now
aiming
f or opera t ional (scope
1-2) ‘net zero’ emissions b y 2050
a t t he
la t e st and
ha v e
c ompan y sc ope
1-3 ambi t ion s en t ailing
ty pi c all y > 50%
r edu ct ion s, wi t h
s ome
up
t o
100% . With the
Europ ea n s
now m o re
a lign e d, c ould actions
rather
tha n w ords
be
th e di fferentiator? W i t h
European
oil s now
no t onl y all
m ore
ambi t iou s, bu t al s o
m ore aligned
t han
e v er , th ere
are
f ewer (i f no) ob v iou s ou tl iers . W i th le ss to di ff er be tw een strate gie s, a cti on s c ould
s pea k louder t han
word s in
th e
ne xt f ew
y ears in
our view . In the
com ing 5
years
some
IO Cs
c ould a pp ear
to be
m o v ing in contrast
to long- term
go als , po tentia ll y
risk ing cred ibilit y
of strate gi es . Up stre am oil
& ga s v olume
grow th or cu ts to new
energie s s pending
c ould
s eem in c on s i st en t wi th longer-term a s pira ti on s; m a k ing
2020-25
a
li tm u s t e st for plan s and
highligh ti ng
t he importan c e
o f s ho rt -term mile sto ne s (e .g. Rep s ol
and
S hell
ha v e
2022
t arge ts). Big
Oil s
not yet a ‘play’ on the energy transition. W e
t hin k i t i s t oo
earl y t o c on s ider IOC stocks as a ‘play’ on the energy transition, bu t we
belie v e
th eir re v i s ed c lima te ambi t ion s allow
t hem to remain ‘investible’ and
o ff er t hem t he
oppo rt uni ty t o demon str a te t he y c an
be
s een
a s f a c ili t a tors of c hange
in
t he
energ y t ran s i ti on . We
d issect the
ma n y
shades
of ‘net zero’ and ‘Paris aligned’ pledges. We loo k a t tw o
in c rea s ingl y u s ed
terms in
s hareholder re s olu ti on s and
c orpora t e
strat egie s and
weigh
up
t he
m eri ts o f ea c h , in c luding
how
de fi ni ti onal
s ub tl e t ie s c an
c hange what we might interpret as meaning ‘net zero’ or ‘aligned’ with Paris goals. In tegrate d oil s: HSBC
ratings
a nd va lu ation snaps hot Share
Target
Upside/ 2020e
2021e valuations
Company Rating Curr Price Price D’side DY P/E EV/CF FC Yld BP (BP/ LN) Buy GBp 320.8 400 24.7% 10.7% 9.8 4.5 12.2% Chevron (CVX US) Hold USD 92.6 91.0 -1.7% 5.6% 29.5 8.6 6.1% ExxonMobil (XOM US) Hold USD 45.3 48.0 5.9% 7.7% 28.7 8.2 3.2% Shell A (RDSA LN) Hold GBp 1,330 1,500 12.8% 3.9% 10.0 5.0 10.1% Shell B (RDSB LN) Hold GBp 1,272 1,460 14.8% 3.9% 10.0 4.6 10.1% Total (FP FP) Buy EUR 33.1 39.25 18.4% 8.2% 9.9 4.0 12.4% ENI (ENI IM) Hold EUR 8.66 9.00 4.0% 10.3% 16.6 4.0 13.4% Repsol (REP SQ) Buy EUR 8.64 10.00 15.7% 11.2% 7.8 4.1 14.2% Equinor (EQNR NO) Hold NOK 144.7 140.0 -3.2% 2.5% 16.8 6.2 9.3% Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates; priced as at close 18 May 2020 21
M a y 2020
Gordon
Gray*
Global
Head
of
Oil
and
Gas
Equity
Research
HSBC
Bank
plc gordon.gray@hsbcib.com
+44
20
7991
6787
Tarek
Soliman*,
CFA Analyst
HSBC
Bank
plc tarek.soliman@hsbc.com
+44
20
3268
5528
*
Employed
by
a
non-US
affiliate
of
HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc,
and
is not
registered/
qualified
pursuant
to
FINRA
regulations
Disclosures
&
Disclaimer
This
report
must
be
read
with
the
disclosures
and
the
analyst
certifications
in the
Disclosure
appendix,
and
with
the
Disclaimer,
which
forms
part
of
it.
Issuer of report:
HSBC Bank plc
View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Glo ba l Equities
Oil
&
Gas
Big
Oil s
&
Climate
Actions
will
speak
louder
than
words
Actions
lou der
th an
words
W e
loo k a t th e
B ig
Oils’ new
clima te st ra te gie s, with
all
6
E uropean s in
our sample
aiming for some level of ‘net zero’ by 2050 W e
t hink
t he
ne xt 5
y ears o f planned
up stre am h y drocarbon
v olume grow th could
ri sk appearing
t o
con tra d ict s ome
long-term strategies
T oo
earl y t o
consider stocks a s a
‘ play ’ on
t he
energ y t ransition
in our view , bu t clima te ambition s keep
st o cks in v estible
f or now
Big
Oil revamps
c l imate
strate gi es
Big Oils have revised climate ambitions against the most challenging macro backdrop in decades
Upstream production growth blow-out to 2025 would appear to be at odds with long-term climate plans
Company blueprints are an opportunity to be seen as a drivers of change, but stocks not a ‘play’ on transition yet Sin c e
we
la st publi s hed
on
t he
oil
indu stry and
c lima te c hange
(s ee
our in-dep th repor t Big
O il s and
Climate : Warming
t o
t he
c hallenge
(13
J anuary 2020) two
s igni f i c an t de v elopmen ts ha v e o cc urred : i) ambi ti on
le v el s ha v e
been
r ai s ed
among
European s in
th e
la st fe w
m on ths; and
ii) th e
m a cr o
oil
en v ironmen t ha s c hanged
dra stic all y, leading
t o
s harp
c ape x c u ts and
t he
f irs t Y o Y f all
in
oil
demand
s in c e
2009 . T he
European
oil s are
now
no t onl y m ore
ambi t iou s a cr o ss th e
board , bu t al s o
m ore
aligned
t han
e v er wi th ea c h
o th er on
long-term s tr a te gie s, m eaning th ere
are
f ewer (i f no) ob v iou s ou tl iers . All
s i x are
aiming
f or opera ti onal
(sc ope
1-2) ‘net zero’ emi ss ion s and
ha v e
2050
sc ope
1-3
ambi ti on s en t ailing
ty pi c all y > 50%
r edu cti on s. So
wi th le ss to di ffer on
in
strate gie s, we
a sk m igh t a ct ion s in
t he
c oming
y ears spea k louder than
word s ?
If y ou l ose
th e
b attle
(to 2025) y ou m ight not win th e
w ar
Compan y de c arboni s a ti on
blueprin ts are
b y t heir na tu re
long
da te d , and
whil st a
s igni fic an t propo rt ion
o f th e
c hange
i s e x pe ct ed
t o
o cc ur po st -2035 , we
t hin k t ha t th e
ne xt 5
y ears i s li k el y to s erve
a s an
in te re sti ng
t e st ing
ground
for c ompan y str a te gie s. W e
s ee
a
po t en t ial
r i sk o f
s ome
c ompan y a cti on s in
c oming
y ears appearing
t o
be
in c on s i ste n t wi th longer-term a s pira ti on s, in c luding
i) t arge t ing
up stre am volume
grow th (s ee
page
8) , ii) cu tti ng
in
new energie s s pending , and
iii) unde rtak ing
M&A t ha t in c rea s e s e x po s ure
t o
oil
& ga s a ss e ts. S ome c ompanie s – no ta bl y Rep s ol
and
Shell
– ha v e
up c oming
s ho rt -term mile st one s to ward s longer da te d
strate gie s th a t are
due
in
2022
whi c h
will
en ta il
demon strati ng
progre ss, howe v er t he y are in
t he
m inori ty and
s ome
company 2050 ambitions don’t have sub-t arge ts t hi s de c ade . Big
Oil stocks
not yet a ‘pl ay ’ on e n ergy
transition
G i v en
t he
e x pe cte d
pa c e
o f underl y ing
c hange
a t t he
IO Cs
in
t he
c oming
y ears , we
belie v e
i t i s too early to consider the stocks as a ‘play’ on the energy tra n s i ti on . T he
c ompanie s will
c on t inue be
in v ol v ed
in
de v eloping
proje cts and
t e c hnologie s lin k ed
t o
t he
s hi ft t o
a
lower-carbon
f u tu re
– s u c h
a s t he
re c en t E quino r, S hell
and
T o ta l
in v e stm en t in
t he
No rth ern
Ligh ts CCS
proje ct in Norway
– bu t a t a
pa c e
th a t m ean s t he y will
sti ll
be
primaril y oil
& ga s c ompanie s f or years to come . W e
do
howe v er belie v e
t ha t t he
re v i s ed
c lima te strate gie s allow
t he
IO Cs
t o
remain ‘investible’ to a broad audience as these signal an
in te n t ion
t o
e v ol v e
o v er t ime
and , in
our view , th e
long- t erm plan s a ff ord
th e
IO C s th e
oppo rt uni ty t o
demon strate t he y c an
be
s een
a s fac ili tators o f c hange
in
t he
energ y t ran s i ti on .
Compa n y
c li mate
ambitions: short-term
a nd long- term
IOCs: s ho rt-term
c li mate
am bitio ns Compa n y
Am bition/ target
BP
New
t arge ts t o
be
r elea s ed
in
S ep tem be r. Pr e v iou s t arge ts: 1) zero
ne t grow th in
opera ti onal
emi ss ion s in
2025
vs 2015 ; 2) 3 . 5m t CO 2
o f s u st ainable
emi ss ion s r edu cti on s b y 2025
Chevron
Ups tre am emi ss ion s in te n s i ty r edu cti on
f or 2016-23
o f 5-10%
f or oil , 2-5% for ga s on
an
equi ty ba s i s, wi th a
25-30%
c u t in
fl aring
in te n s i ty and
a
20- 25%
c u t in
m e th ane
emi ss ion s ENI
Pro du cti on
v olume s to de c line
a ft er 2025 ; Clean
power t arge ts: 3 GW b y 2023 , 5 GW b y 2025 . Equin or
Ups tre am opera t ed
sc ope
1-2
c arbon
in te n s i ty < 8 k g
CO 2 /b b y 2025 . Clean power (o ffs hore
wind) capa c i ty 4-6 GW b y 2026 . Exx on Redu ct ion s o f 15%
in
m e t hane
emi ss ion s and
25%
in
f laring , bo th b y 2020 vs 2016 . 10%
GHG emi ss ion s in te n s i ty redu cti on
a t I mperial
opera t ed
oil s and s (Canada) b y 2023
vs 2016
Reps ol Redu ct ion
in
o v erall
(sc ope
1-3) carbon
in te n s i ty o f th e
produ cts i t manu fact ure s o f 3%
in
2020
and
10%
b y 2025
(vs 2016) . Low
c arbon
power genera ti on
7 .5GW b y 2025
Shell Redu ct ion
in
ne t c arbon
f oo tp rin t (sc ope
1-3) o f 2-3%
in
2021 , 3-4%
b y 2022
vs th e
2016
ba s e
le v el
o f 79g CO 2 /MJ To ta l Redu ct ion
in
opera ti onal
emi ss ion s (sc ope
1-2) f rom 41 .5mt CO 2
in
2019
t o
<40m t CO 2
in
2025
Source: Company data
IOCs: l...
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