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COVID-19将如何改变数字形式和内容

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COVID-19将如何改变数字形式和内容

 

 G l o b al R e sear c h

 26

 Mar ch

 2020

 F und am e ntal

 A nal y ti c s

 Q1 - Q 2

 n u m be r s

 watch

 ou t:

 H ow

 wi ll

 CO VI D - 19 ch an g e

 t h e

 f or m

 &

 con ten t

 of

 th e

 n u m be r s ?

  COVID - 19

 w ill

 und o ub t e d l y

 hav e

 ma j o r

 i mp li ca t i o ns

 f o r

 eco n o m i c

 a ct i v i t y …

 I n 2020 w e

 ha ve

 be e n w i t n es s

 to

 a

 rap i d d ev el op men t

 o f

 th e

 COV I D -19 v i r us

 outbr ea k, d ri v i ng a

 s i gn i fi c an t

 numb er

 o f

 i n fec ti on s

 g l ob al l y . M eas u res

 taken

 to

 c on tai n th e

 v i ru s ou tb reak

  h ave

  affected

  ec ono mi c

  ac ti v ity

  g reatl y ,

 w h i c h

 i n

 tu rn

 w ill

  h ave

  maj or i mp li c ati on s

 fo r futu re

 fi n a n c i al

 rep o rti ng. So m e

 o f

 th e

 key

 i mp ac ts

 i n c l ud e , bu t

 are

 no t li m i t e d

  t o

  i nt e rrupt i o ns

 of

 pr oduc t i on,

  s up pl y

 c ha i n

  di s rupt i ons ,

  una va il a bili t y

 of pe r s o nne l ,

 r e d uc t i ons

  i n

 s a l e s ,

 ea r ni ngs ,

 or

 pr oduc t i v i t y

  a nd

 t he

  po ss ibl e

  c l os ur e

  of f ac ilit ie s

 a nd st or e s.

 W e" ve

 s tri v ed

 fo r a

 b al an ce

 betw een

 h i gh li gh ti ng th e

 i ss u es

 s o t h ey are

 on y our rad ar

 an d d ep th

 o f

 tec hn i c al

 d etai l

 emb ed d ed

 w i t h i n th e s e

 i ss u es . … and

 i n

 t u r n

 ma j o r

 i mp li ca t i o ns

 f o r

 f i nan c i a l

 r e p o r t i n g

 W e

 ex p ec t

 c omp an i e s

 w ill

 n ee d to

 rev iew , i n ad d i ti on to

 go i ng c on c ern , al l

 areas

 o f

 th e acc oun ts

 th at

 are

 s ub j ec t

 to

 j udg eme n t

 an d

  es ti mati on

  un c ertai n ty ,

  i n c l ud i ng: acc oun ti ng es ti mates , fai r v al u e

 meas u remen t s , as s et s

 i mp ai r men t,

 ex p ec ted

 c red i t

 l o ss as s es s me n ts , h ed g e

 acc oun ti ng an d o th er

 fi n an c i al

 s tatemen t

 d i s c l o s u re

 req u i remen ts . The

  i mp ac t

  o f

  b reac h es

  o f

  c o v enan ts ,

 on ero u s

  c on trac t

  pro v i s i on s

  an d

 re s tru c tu ri ng p la n s

 also

 d e se r ve

 c on side r a t io n. F o r

 i nv e st o rs,

 w e

 hav e

 g i v e n

 a

 g u i d e

 t o

 i d e n t i fy

 r e si li e n t

 co mpan i e s …

 I n

 our

 rec en t

  no te

  ( Y our

 g ui d e

  t o

 i de nt i f y

  w hi c h

 c om pa ni e s

  ha ve

  t h e

  r e s ili e nc e

  t o w eath e r th e

 COV I D -19 c r isis) , w e

 unp ac k th e

 b i g qu es ti on th at

 as ks

 w ho c an

 w eath er th e

 c u rren t

 c limate,

 i n to

 an

 as s es s men t

 th at

 fo c u s es

 on c as h fl o w

 g enerati on, f le x ib ilit y an d acc es s . W e

 th en

 take

 th i s

 v iew

 to

 ex ami n e

 th e

 fu ll

 c om mitmen t

 s p ec tr um fac i ng c omp an i es . No t

 j u s t

 d eb t

 c o mmitmen ts . W e

 v iew

 an y

 c o mmitmen t

 w h ere

 th e

 c omp an y ne eds

 t o pa y

 ca s h o ut

 a s

 a

 f i nanc i a l

 obli ga t i on –

 i t " s

 not j u s t

 a bo ut

 de bt

  now. T h es e o th er

 ob li g ati on s

 c an

 c au s e

 c ri ti c al

 c as h fl o w

 i ss u e s

 fo r c omp an i es . … by

 a sk i n g

 d e t a il e d

 qu e st i o ns .

 Del v i ng d eeper

 i n to

 th e

 d etai l

 makes

 al l

 th e

 d ifferen ce

 w h en

 tryi ng to

 tri ag e

 w ho c an w eath er

  th e

  s to rm.

 W e

  an al y s e

  s ou rc es ,

 res t ri c ti on s

  an d

 u s es

  o f

  li q ui d i t y ,

 ca s h

 burn rates

  an d

 run a w ay s

  an d

 d efen s i ve

  i n terv al

  rati o s .

 W e

  l ook

 at

  op erati ng

 l ev erag e as s es s me n ts ,

 c o s t

  mi x es ,

 an d

 d eb t

  c o v enan ts .

 W e

  fo c u s

  on

 th e

  a n al y s i s

  o f

  h i dd e n gu arantee s , o ff -b al an ce

 s h eet

 c o mmitmen ts

 a nd c on ti ng en cy

 prob ab ility

 reas s e ss men t.

 Ren ier

 Sw an ep o el ,

 A C A ,

 C A ( S A )

 A na l ys t r e ni e r .s w a nepoe l @ ubs .com

 + 44-20-7568

 9025

 G e of f

 R obins o n,

 CF M ,

 F CA

 A na l ys t ge of f .robi nson@ u bs .com

 + 44-20-7567

 1706

 Yi di ng

 L u,

 CF A

 A na l ys t yi ding.l u@ ubs .co m

 + 44-20-7568

 9091

 Cour t ne y

 C ook ,

 CF A

 A na l ys t cour t ne y.c ook @ u bs .com

 + 44-20-7567

 4871

 www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch

  T hi s

 r e por t

 ha s

 be e n pr e pa r e d by

 U BS

 A G

 L ondon Bra nc h.

  ANALYS T

 C E R T I F IC AT I O N

 AND

 R E Q UI R E D

 DIS C L O S UR E S

 B E GI N O N

 P AGE

 18 .

  UB S

 do e s

 an d s eeks

 to

 do bu s i n es s

 w i t h c omp an i es

 c o v ered

 i n i ts

 re s earc h r ep o rts . As

 a

 res u l t,

 i n v es t o rs

 s hou l d b e aw are

 th at

 th e

 fi rm may

 h ave

 a

 c on fl i c t

 o f

 i n teres t

 th at

 c ou l d affec t

 th e

 ob j ec ti v ity

 o f

 t h i s

 rep o rt.

 I n ve s to rs

 s hou l d c on s i d er

 th i s rep o rt

 as

 on l y

 a

 s i ng l e

 fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t

 d ec i s i on. Fundam ent a l

 An al yt i cs

 G l o bal

 Equit ies

  C o n te n t s

 CO VID - 19

 pot ential

 r epor t ing

 is s ue s

  ................................... 3

 A t

 a

 g l a n ce

  ................................................................................................. 4 I n a

 b it

 mor e

 d e t a il

  ...................................................................................... 5 G oi ng c onc e rn

  ............................................................................................ 5 D is cl o s ur e s

  .................................................................................................. 6 No n- f i n a n cia l

 a ss e t s

  .................................................................................... 6 Fi n a n c i a l

 i n s t ru me n t s

 a nd l ea s e s

  .................................................................. 8 Re v e nu e

 r e c o gni t i on

  ................................................................................. 10 No n- f i n a n cia l

 ob li g a t i on s

  ........................................................................... 11 C om pa ny

 a ud i t

 opini o ns

  ........................................................................... 14 O ur

 analyt i c al r es pons e

 t o

 CO VID - 19

  ................................ 15

 Y our

 g ui d e

  t o

 ide n t i f y i ng

 w hi c h

 c omp a ni e s

  h a v e

  t he

  r e s ili e nc e

  t o

 w ea t he r CO V I D -19

  ................................................................................................. 15 " P r i ci ng- i n "

 t h e

 i mp a ct o f

 CO V I D -19

  ........................................................ 16

 Ren ier

 Sw an ep o el ,

 A C A ,

 C A ( S A )

 A na l ys t r e ni e r .s w a nepoe l @ ubs .com

 + 44-20-7568

 9025

 G e of f

 R obins o n,

 CF M ,

 F CA

 A na l ys t ge of f .robi nson@ u bs .com

 + 44-20-7567

 1706

 Yi di ng

 L u,

 CF A

 A na l ys t yi ding.l u@ ubs .co m

 + 44-20-7568

 9091

 Cour t ne y

 C ook ,

 CF A

 A na l ys t cour t ne y.c ook @ u bs .com

 + 44-20-7567

 4871

 COV ID - 19

 pot e ntia l

 r e por t ing

 iss u e s

 COV I D -19 ha s

 gl obal

 i m pl i c a t i ons

 a s

 a

 c ons e q uenc e

 of

 mob il it y

 r e s t r ic t io n s

  I n

  2020

  w e

  h a v e

  be e n

  w i t n e ss

  t o

  a

  r a pid

  de v e l opm e nt

  of

  t he

  CO V I D -19

  vir u s out br ea k,

  dr i v i ng

  a

  s i gni f i c a nt

  num be r

  of

  i nf e c t i ons

  g l ob a ll y .

  M ea s ur e s

  t a k e n

  t o c ont a i n

 t he

 v i r us

 out br ea k

 h a v e

 a ff e c t e d

  e c onom i c

 a c t i v i t y

 gr ea t l y ,

 w h i c h

 i n

 t urn w ill

 h ave

 m a jor

 imp l ica t ion s

 f or

 f u t ur e

 f in a n cia l

 r e por t ing.

 S om e

 of

 t he

 k e y

 i m pa c t s

 i nc lude ,

 but

 a r e

 not

 li m i t e d

 t o:

  

 I nterrup t i ons

 of

 pr oduc t i on.

  

 S uppl y

 c ha i n

 di s r upt i ons .

  

 U n ava il a b i lit y

 o f

 p e r s onn e l.

  

 Re duc t i ons

 i n

 s a l e s ,

 ea rning s ,

 or

 pr oduc t i v i t y .

  

 C l os ur e

 of

 f a c ili t i e s

 a nd

 s t or e s .

  

 D e l a y s

 i n

 pl a nn e d

 bus i ne ss

 e x pa ns i on s .

  

 In a b ili t y

 t o

 r a is e

 f in a n cin g.

  

 Incr ea s e d

 vo la t il it y

 i n

 t he

 v a l u e

 of

 f i nanc i a l

 i ns t rum e nt s .

  

 Re duc e d

  t our i s m,

  di s r upt i on s

  i n

  none ss e n t i a l

  t r a v e l

  a nd

  s por t s ,

  c u l t ur a l

  a nd o t h e r

 l e is ur e

 a ctivit ie s .

  I n add i t i on, ent i t i es

 s houl d cons i der

 t he

 i ncr eas i n gl y

 br oad

 ef f ect s

 of

 COV I D -19 as

 a

 r es ul t

 of i t s

 negati ve

 i mp a ct on t he

 gl obal

 econom y

 and

 m aj or f i nanc i a l

 m ar ket s . The

 C O V I D - 19

 o u t b r eak i s exp ec t ed t o

 have ma t eri al ef f e c t s on

 r e por te d

 num be r s …

 At

 a

 g l a n c e

 C a r e f ul

 c ons i d e r a t i on

 s hould

 be

 gi v e n

 t o

 t h e

 i m pa c t

 of

 CO V I D -19

 on

 bot h

 i nt e r i m a nd

 a nnual

 f i nanc i a l

 s t a t e m e nt

 r e por t i ng.

 W e

 be li e v e

 t he

 i m pa c t

 c ould

 be s i gni f i c a nt

 f or

 m a ny

 bus i ne ss e s .

 Wh at

 ar e

 t h e

 f in a n c ia l r e por t i ng c ons e que nc e s ?

 … w e

 h i g h li g h t

 t h e

 m o r e i mp o r t an t

 i ss u es

 h er e.

  I mpl i c a t i on s

 n ot

 onl y

 i nc lude

 e ff e c t s

 on

 t he

 m ea s ur e m e nt

 of

 a ss e t s

 &

 li a bi li t i e s

 but a l s o

  di s c l o s ur e

  i ss ue s

  a nd

  mor e

  i mpor t a nt l y

  a n

  e nt i t y " s

  a bi li t y

  t o

  c ont inue

  a s

  a going

  c onc e rn.

  Be l ow

  w e

  h a v e

  highl i ght e d

  t he

  m a j or

  f i nanc i a l

  s t a t e m e nt

  e ff e c t s t ha t

 w e

 be li e v e

 c ould

 be

 i mp a c t e d

 by

 t he

 v i r us .

 F i g u r e

 1 :

 A t

 a

 g l an c e

 –

 C O V I D - 19

 co u l d

 p o t e n t i a l

 hav e

 an

 i mpa ct

 o n

 t h e se

 a cco un t i n g

 r u l e s

 F i na nc i a l

 St a t ement s

 De sc ri p ti on

 Po ss ibl e

 r ea s oning

 I A S

 1

 /

 A S C

 205/220

 G o i ng c o nc er n P oten ti al i mp li c ati on s

 o f

 C OVID - 19 on t he

 bus i nes s

 a s

 a

 go i ng c o nce rn I A S

 2

 /

 A S C

 330

 Inv entor i e s

 R e duc e d i d l e

 c ap ac i ty ,

 th e

 o ve rh e ad

 c o s ts

 m ay

 no t

 b e

 al l o c ated I A...