下面是小编为大家整理的COVID疫苗潜影,响，价格是多少（完整）,供大家参考。
G l ob al Re searc h
19
Au gu st 2020
G l o b a l
S t ra t e g y
COVID
v acc ine
p ote ntial
impacts,
w hat"s
p riced? UBS
Evi dence
Lab
De ep
Theme
Ex plore r
inside
UBS
Evid ence
Lab De ep The me Ex pl orer
u sed to
d evelo p
va cc in e
f ra me wor k Usi ng
UB S
Evid ence
Lab"s
Dee p
Theme
Explorer,
we
develo p
a
framew ork
to
asses s sen si t ivities
t o COVID
vac cine
develo pme nts . We
focus
on m ajo r news
days
when
ne t vac cine
sen timen t
is
>1.5 std ev
to
esti mate
potenti al
im pacts
for
styles , indu s tries
and sto cks.
Co mpan ies
with
COVID -19 vaccines
i n clin ical
stag es
of
develo pmen t,
identi f i e d by
UB S
Pharma/Bi otech
ana lysts , als o pro vide
a n in d icator
for
vac cine
pro gres s . The
two si g nal s
have
moved
tog ether,
with
so me
si gns
that vacc in e
s tocks
have
bee n a
lead ing si g nal
in
May
and
Jul y.
The
avg
S&P
500 retu rn has
bee n 1.6 %
on p os it ive
>1.5 std ev vac cine
news
d ays.
The
fe w
ne gati ve
vaccin e
news
days
have
seen
the
S&P
ri se
on avg. The
anal ysis
sugg est s
vac cine
pro gre ss
w ill
fu el
si zeable
mov es,
in
bo th
d ire ction s.
What"s
pric ed ?
Estima te d
6. 5pp of
ra ll y
s i nce
May
d ue t o
va cc in e
news
Usi ng an
approac h bas ed
on U hlig
(2 005),
we
acc umu late
S&P
500 retur ns
on vac cine "s h ock"
days
of
+/- 1s tdev
to
esti mate
what may
be
pri ced
by
the
market.
Since
May , the
potent ial
fo r a
COVID
vaccin e
can
explai n ~6.5pp of
the
rall y.
In
our equi ty
return s mod el ,
ever y
100p t
cha ng e
in
economic
p oli cy
un cer tainty
(EPU)
is
worth
~10 %
fo r equ iti e s.
Thu s , the
~6.5 %
vaccin e
li ft
wou ld
impl y
an
un cer tainty
reduction
of
~65 pt s. The
65pts
o ut
of
a
total poss ibl e
EPU
rev ersal
of
150-200p t s
to
Jan
levels
w ou l d poin t to
a
rough mar ket
impl ied
pro bab ility
of
33-4 0%
th at
a
vaccin e
is
p riced
(i.e.
65 / 20 0).
Se ns itivities
to
va cc in e
news
show
eve n
l ess i s
priced
at an
in dus tr y
l ev el
We
esti mate
vacc in e
sen si t iviti es
us i ng avg
re turn s
on majo r news
days
(>1.5stdev)
fo r all
asp ect s
of
th e
equ ity
market,
highlighte d be lo w.
YTD
retur ns
for
S&P
500 in d us trie s have
been
- 63%
correl ated
to
resp ect ive
vac cine
sen si tivit i es.
The
beta
coefficien t
i n that relationsh i p po i nts
to
14 bi g vac cine
news
days
needed
for
in d us trie s
to
get
back to
pre -COVID
levels , vs
4 bi g days
si nce
May.
T hat
impli es
a
22 %+
pro babili t y
a
vacc in e is
pri ced
(4
divided
by
4+14 ).
Ad di ti on a ll y,
t h e
rolling
beta
o f
YTD
return s
t o resp ect ive vac cine
sen si tivi ties
trough ed
i n early
May,
jumped
in
the
fir st
wav e
of
vac cine
news , bu t
the
beta
is
j us t
off
the
l ows . Bo th
sugg e st
a
vacc in e
is
n ot
reall y
pri ced
for
ind u stri es and
po in t
to
gr eater
r elati ve
up side
for
vacc in e
sen si tive
stoc ks
in
a
good ou tcome.
- St yle s .
Small
caps
outperfor med
larg e
caps
by
~2pp
on
majo r
vac cine
news
days , imp lying
a
~13pp+ potent ial
outp erforman ce
of
smal l
vs
larg e
on a
vac cine
us i ng the 33-4 0%
pro bab ility
abo ve.
V alu e
v s
Gro wth
indi ces
w ere
much
less
se ns it ive.
- Se ctors /industries .
Airlin es,
Ho tel s/Lei su r e,
Au tos&C omp,
Energ y ,
HH
Durabl es , Ap parel,
In d us t rial s
(most
segments),
Banks
and
Co ns
Fina nce
are
mos t
po s iti vely geared
to
a
vac cine
whil e
Staples,
Pharma / B io t ech
and
Teleco m are
the
leas t
sen si t ive. Tech
and
Com m Sv cs
a vg
returns
w ere
on ly
sl ig htl y
below
th e
market
on vacc in e
days.
- Regi o ns . Eur op e
has
bee n mo re
sens it ive
t o vac cine
news
than
Japan , EM
and
Asia.
- Macro. The
ri se
in
rates
acr o ss
the
curv e
(1 -3b p)
ha s
been
smal l
on positi ve
vac cine news
days,
w hil e
F X,
g ol d an d oth er
c ommo dity
moves
have
b een
even
more
muted . - St oc ks. We
pro vide
esti mated
stock
sens iti viti es
to
vac cine
news
in
an
excel
f il e
( link ).
UBS
analysts"
vie w s
on
the
paths forw ar d
for a
va cc in e
UB S
Pharma/Biotech
anal ysts
l ay
ou t
the
stat e
of
mos t
lea ding
vaccines , t h e
path s
to succ ess
and
wh at
may
be
pri ced
for
so me
vac cine
sto cks
– wit h MRK
offering attrac tive ris k/ reward.
The
path
to
a
vacc in e
is
sti ll
hi g hl y
un cer tain ,
with
a
hi gh er
bar
for
RN A vaccines , and
t here
is
ris k of
di sa ppo in tment through clinic al
trial s.
News
fl ow
is
li kel y to
fuel
si zeable
stock
moves
across
equ iti e s.
However,
we
st ill
see
a
>50 %
pro ba bility of
a
vacc in e
in
H1
2021, and
t he
equ ity
market
is
pri cing
in
les s
than
that, p articul arly at
the
ind u stry/stock
level.
This
impli es
the
balance
of
risks
is
t ilted
to
th e
u ps i de.
Keith Parker
S tr a tegi st k e i th -j .parke r@ ubs.com
+1 -212-713
3296
Navin
Jacob
Ana l yst na vi n.j a cob@ubs.com
+1 -212-713
6185
Sean
Si mon ds Associ a te
S tr a tegist se a n.si monds @ ubs.com
+1 -212-713
2851
Michae l
Leuchte n Ana l yst mi cha e l- a .l e uchten@ubs.com
+44 -20-7568
8843
Jonat han
L i m, MD Associ a te
A na l yst jon.li m@ubs.com
+1 -212-713
4321
Prakhar
Agraw al Associ a te
A na l yst prakhar.agra w a l @ ubs.com
+1 -212-713
1437
ww w.u bs.com/ i nvestm entresea rch
Thi s
repo rt
has
been
prep ared
by
UB S
Se curiti es
LL C.
AN ALYS T
CERTIFI C AT ION
AN D
REQUIR ED
DISCLOSU RES BEG IN
ON PAGE
15 .
UB S
do es
an d see ks
to
do
bu s iness
with
comp ani es
cover ed
i n its
research
r eports.
As
a
re su lt , in vest ors
s hou ld
b e G l o bal
Globa l
Ma cro
Strategy
aware
that the
fir m may
have
a
conflict
of
i nteres t
that co ul d affec t
the
ob jectivity
of
t hi s
rep ort. In ve sto rs
s houl d co ns i der
this
COVI D
vaccine:
a
new
fra mework
We
deve lop
a
new
fr amework
to
as sess
th e
pot ent ial
equi ty
impact s
of
a
vaccine , using
UBS
Ev i dence
Lab"s
Deep
Them e
Explorer .
Bet ter
understanding
how
th e evolutio n
of
a
vacci ne
cou ld
aff ect
stocks
over
com ing
mo nt hs
is
so
i mportan t against
th e
pr ospect
of
futu r e
waves
of
CO VID
cas e s,
whe re
th e
relat ionships
hav e basica lly
been
new
COVID
c a ses - >r e strictio n s - >m obility- >d eman d.
We
use
th e
new vacci ne
anal ys i s
to
e valuate
t he
setup
fo r
st ocks
as
positi v e
and
ne g ative
news
flow fo r
clinical
tr ial s
in
coming
m ont hs
could
ha ve
cons iderabl e
imp acts
on
e quit ies .
UBS
Evi d ence
Lab De ep T heme Explor er
to
identi fy
vacci ne ne ws
days
UBS
Evidence
Lab’s
Deep
Th eme
Exp lorer
bolster s
th ema tic
research
by
expanding a
search
term
into a
th eme
by
statistic ally
identifying
ot her
ter ms
or
phr ases
th a t fr equent ly
occ ur
to get her
with
th e
or iginal
s earch
term.
The
resulting
s et
of
relat ed ter ms/phr ases
are
th en
used
to
search
ac ro ss
a
wide
ran g e
of
publicat io ns
(new s , earnings
call s,
UBS
Rese arch,
blogs,
industr y
jour nals
,
comp any
filings)
m easuring positive,
negat ive,
and
net
sentimen t
as
well
as
to tal
men tion s
of
th e
th eme
on ten s
of
th ousands
of
public
and
pr ivate
comp anies
a nd
or ganizatio ns.
UB S Evidence
Lab
h as
a
patent
pe nding
on
t he
a ppr oach.
We
use
the
De ep
Them e
Expl or er
t o
identify
days
when
ne t
sent iment
fo r
a
vacci n e is
statistic ally
si gnif icant
( >1 stdev
d ays)
u s ing
a
sel e ction
of
wor ds
fo r
a
C OVID vacci ne
acro ss
news
source s
( Figure
1 ).
Sin ce
May ,
th ere
have
been
7
days
when net
vacci ne
se nt iment
has
been
positi ve
a nd
1stdev
>av g,
with
4
majo r
news
days (>1. 5stdev):
May
18,
Ju l
14,
Ju l
15
and
Ju l
20.
We
fo cus
on
th e
fo ur
m ajor
new s days
for
our
an alys i s
of
s ensiti vities
to
a
vacci ne
f or
sec to rs,
industr ies
and
stocks .
Stocks w ith
vaccines
in developm ent
are
als o
a
si gnal
UBS
Phar ma/B i ot ech
analys t s
identified
th ose
comp anie s
with
COVID -19
vacci ne s in
th e
cl inical
stage
of
dev elopm ent.
U sin g
th ose
th at
are
publi cly
t raded,
w e identify
th ose
days
in
which
a
stock
pr ice
mo ve
is
gr eate r
th an
1.5stde v
fo r
each comp an y
in
t he
basket.
Si milar
to
th e
above
news - ba sed
approach,
th ese
larg e mo ves
fo r
stoc ks
with
vacci n es
are
a
si gnal
fo r
changes
in
vacci ne
deve lopment s . Indeed,
th e
t wo
indicato rs
have
mo ved
t oget her ,
even
mo re
closely
si nce
Ju l y
– with
some
s ign s
that
stoc k s
h ave
been
a
l ea ding
in dicator
i n
May
an d
J uly .
Fig ure
1 :
Va cci ne n et
s entim ent
in dicat ors us i ng
UBS
Ev i denc e
La b
De ep Them e Ex pl orer
and
s tocks
with
va c ci nes in deve lo pment
We
sear ch
US
news
t o
id entif y major
va ccine
news
days.
Id entif yin g
the
4
majo r
va c cine ne ws
days
si nce
May
en ab le
u s t o esti mat e
sens itivitie s t o
va ccine developments .
Th ose ph arma/bio tech
co mpan ies most
mentioned in
the
searches were in deed tho se
fur ther
ah ead in
d evel op ment and
tho se
not
too far b ehin d.
Stocks wit h v accine s in developmen t
have also
b een
an impo rt an t
s ig na l.
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
15
13
We
crea te
co mplemen tar y
11
in di cators
to
tr a ck
vaccine
9
developments u sing
both
the
7
ne ws...