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美国电信业:解密新秩序

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美国电信业:解密新秩序

 

   F u t ure

 world

 order : Comca st’s r i sk-r eward

 pro f ile

 appealing

 but Di s h ’s loo ks c loud y; sy nergie s a t T MU S hinge

 on

 e x e c u t ion

  I mmedia t e

 world

 order : VZ’s di v idend s and

 por tf olio

 m i x pro v ide c om f or t bu t m obile

 c ompe t i t ion

 s e t t o

 in t en s i fy  Comca st i s our pre f erred

 st o ck; D IS H

 i s our lea st; we

 ha v e

 Hold ra t ing s on

 T MU S, V eri z on , AT&T and

 CH T R ; r e v i s e

 TPs

 Littl e

 did w e

 k now … when

 we

 publi s hed

 our repor t A c hange

 i s in

 order (13

 No v ember 2019) , t ha t we

 were

 abou t t o

 s ee

 a

 st ru ct urall y di ff eren t 2020 . I n

 t hi s no t e , we

 pre s en t our in v e st men t t he s i s on

 t he

 enlarged

 T MU S ( po st S prin t t a k eo v er) ; we

 ou t line

 our t hough ts f or t he

 t elecoms under our co v erage , loo k ing

 a t t he

 c ompanie s’ pro s pe cts f or t he

 immedia t e

 f u t ure

 and

 t he

 f ar f u t ure ; and

 we

 r e v iew

 our e st ima t e s in

 ligh t o f t he C OVI D-19

 di sr up t ion , pre s en t ing

 sc enario s on

 t he

 po t en t ial

 impa ct. I mme di ate

 a nd futu re

 wo r ld o r d ers . Am id

 t he

 C OVI D-19-led

 di sr up t ion , demand

 f or conne ct i v i ty, s o

 f ar , appears t o

 be

 r ela t i v el y r e s ilien t. Est ima t ing

 t he

 pro s pe cts f or t he immedia t e

 and

 f ar f u t ure

 f or t he

 U S t ele c om indu st ry doe s pre s en ts s ome

 c omple x i ty (s ee

 page s 10-19) gi v en

 t he

 di v erse

 bu s ine ss in t ere sts and

 e x po s ure s; howe v er , we

 do s ee

 oppor t uni t ie s. W e

 s ee

 Comca st’s r i sk-r eward

 pro f ile

 as

 r ela t i v el y m ore

 a tt ra ct i v e t han

 t ho s e

 o f i ts peers . A l t hough

 V eri z on

 doe s st and

 ou t gi v en

 i ts r ela t i v el y lower e x po s ure

 t o

 non-mobile

 and

 c onne ct i v i ty bu s ine ss e s, lower le v erage

 and

 de c en t di v idend s, we

 e x pe ct i t t o

 f a c e

 in t en s i f ied

 c ompe t i t ion

 in

 m obile . F or T MU S, we

 r emain c au t iou s on

 t he

 quan t um o f sy nergie s t ha t m a y be

 r eali z ed

 and

 e x e c u t ion

 r emain s k e y, bu t we

 t hin k t he y m a y st ill

 be

 m eaning f ul . W e

 r emain

 unen t hu s ia st i c abou t D IS H ’s pro s pe cts in

 m obile . E stimate

 a nd t ar g et pr i ce

 c h a ng es . W e

 upda t e

 our e st ima t e s, f a ct oring

 in de v elopmen ts around

 C OVI D-19

 and

 t he

 r e c en t r e s ul ts. O ur wors t c a s e

 sc enario s ugge sts 2-6%

 down s ide

 t o

 our t arge t pri c e s. F ollowing

 our e st ima t e

 r e v i s ion s and rolling

 f orward

 our valua t ion s, we

 r e v i s e

 our t arge t pri c e s a s s hown

 in

 t he

 t able

 below and

 de t ailed

 on

 page s 31-37 . W e

 k eep

 our ra t ing s un c hanged

 wi t h

 a

 B u y on

 Comca st, Redu c e

 on

 Di s h

 and

 Hold

 r a t ing s on

 A l t i c e

 U SA, AT&T, Char t er , T MU S and

 V eri z on .

 Key

 cha ng es

 to ratings

 a nd estimates

 1

 J une

 2020

 Sunil

 Rajgopal Analyst,

 TMT

 HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc. sunilrajgopal@us.hsbc.com

 +1

 212

 525

 0267

 Nicolas

 Cote-Colisson* Senior

 Analyst,

 TMT HSBC

 Bank

 plc

 nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com

 +44

 20

 7991

 6826

 Christian

 Fangmann* Analyst,

 Telecoms

 HSBC

 Trinkaus

 &

 Burkhardt

 AG christian.fangmann@hsbc.de

 +49

 211

 910

 2002

 Neale

 Anderson*

 Head

 of

 Telecoms

 Research,

 Asia

 Pacific

 The

 Hongkong

 and

 Shanghai

 Banking

 Corporation

 Limited neale.anderson@hsbc.com.hk

 +852

 2996

 6716

  *

 Employed

 by

 a

 non-US

 affiliate

 of

 HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc,

 and

 is not

 registered/

 qualified

 pursuant

 to

 FINRA

 regulations

 Company

 Ticker

  Rating

 Old

 New Latest CCY Price _ Target Price

 Old New Implied Upside/ Downside Mkt Cap (USDm)

  EV/EBITDA

  2020e 2021e Net Debt/EBITDA

 _ 2020e 2021e Altice USA ATUS.N Hold Hold USD 25.21 28.00 28.00 11.1% 22,623 10.5 10.5 5.2 5.2 AT&T T.N Hold Hold USD 31.06 42.00 32.00 3.0% 221,303 7.1 7.0 2.6 2.5 Charter CHTR.OQ Hold Hold USD 534.67 430.00 500.00 -6.5% 110,389 11.0 10.4 4.5 4.3 Comcast CMCSA.OQ Buy Buy USD 39.55 52.00 45.00 13.8% 180,139 8.9 7.9 3.1 2.6 Dish DISH.OQ Reduce Reduce USD 31.18 26.00 26.00 -16.6% 19,893 13.5 15.3 4.5 5.0 TMUS TMUS.OQ Hold Hold USD 99.22 86.00 102.00 2.8% 122,612 9.3 7.9 3.1 2.6 Verizon VZ.N Hold Hold USD 55.72 65.00 57.00 2.3% 230,569 7.5 7.2 2.2 2.0 Note: Latest prices as of close at 28 May 2020. Source: HSBC estimates, Refinitiv Datastream

  Disclosures

 &

 Disclaimer

 This

 report

 must

 be

 read

 with

 the

 disclosures

 and

 the

 analyst

 certifications

 in the

 Disclosure

 appendix,

 and

 with

 the

 Disclaimer,

 which

 forms

 part

 of

 it.

 Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc

 View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com US

 Telecoms

 Equities

 Diversified

  Decrypting

 the

 new

 order;

 compelling

 stories

 hard

 Telecommunications

 to

 find

 Unite d States

  Decry pting t he

 new TMUS

  S prin t t akeo v er presen ts po t en ti al

 m a te rial

 sy nergies , bu t we

 rem ain cautiou s on

 o v erall

 quan tum; m uch

 appears t o

 be

 priced

 in

  Ex ecution

 ke y t o

 wa tch; sho rt -term , FCF likely

 t o

 be

 lim it ed ; m edium term , we

 see

 cUS D5bn

 run-rate on

 sy nergies

 and

 USD14bn

 in integration

 c o sts  O ur TP o f USD102

 for T MUS

 implie s 6 . 3 x 2023

 EV/EBIT D A; blue- sky scenario

 f air

 v alue

 implie s c 20%

 upside

  The ne w TMUS

  COVID-19 may provide more leverage to negotiate better lease terms

  …focus likely to be on gaining competitive and mind-share advantages Four-to-three

 … the

 p ath was

 not easy; synergy

 opportuniti es

 rema in materia l Aft er 23

 m on t h s o f wai t ing

 and

 r egula t ory challenge s, T MU S’s and

 S prin t’s m erger f inall y s u cc eeded , and

 T MU S st ar t ed

 c on s olida t ing

 S prin t f rom 1

 A pril

 2020 . I n

 t hi s r epor t, we

 ou t line

 our view s on

 t he enlarged

 T MU S ( New

 T MU S) and

 upda t e

 our e st ima t e s t o

 r e f le ct t he

 S prin t c on s olida t ion . Aft er t he merger , we

 s ee

 T MU S a s being

 on

 a

 be tt er f oo t ing

 in

 t erms o f s pe ct rum holding s and

 s ub scr iber share

 v ersu s i ts c ompe t i t ion . As we

 s e t ou t in

 our pre v iou s r epor ts – s ee

 M ara t hon

 ( almo st) a t t he f ini s h

 line

 ( 11

 F ebruary 2020) and

 I n s pe ct ing

 k nown

 un k nown s ( 29

 J ul y 2019) – we

 e x pe ct t he c ombina t ion

 wi t h

 S prin t will

 help

 t o

 dri v e

 m a t erial

 sy nergie s. Th e

 CO V ID-19

 situation , in

 our view , po s e s c hallenge s to th e

 indu stry o v erall

 in

 th e

 s hor t t erm bu t m a y pre s en t oppor t uni ti e s f or T MUS

 and

 i ts peers to re c on s ider t heir bu s ine ss m odel s, pa rt i c ularl y for t heir re ta il

 f oo t prin ts, po t en t iall y f a v oring

 s ervi c e

 and

 s ale s v ia

 digi t al

 c hannel s ra th er than

 in

 ph ys i c al

 st ore s. De v elopmen ts in

 o t her coun t rie s – f or e x ample , Virgin

 M edia (owned

 b y Libe rty Gl obal) ha s de c ided

 t o

 permanen t l y c lo s e

 i ts 53

 st ore s in

 t he

 UK

 (G uardian , 28 Ma y 2020) and

 V oda fo ne

 is

 c ommi tte d

 to r edu c ing

 i ts r e t ail

 fo o t prin t b y 15%

 a cr o ss E urope

 o v er the

 ne xt th ree

 y ears – suppor t our view

 f or U S te l c o s t o

 m eaning fu l

 r a t ionali z e

 th eir re ta il fo o tp rin ts. W e

 would

 e x pe ct t hi s t o

 help

 t o

 dri v e

 down

 c o sts. W e

 al s o

 e x pe ct T MUS ’s now

 larger scale

 and

 t he

 COVID- 19

 di s rup t ion

 to pro v ide

 t he

 c ompan y wi th m ore

 le v erage

 t o

 nego ti a t e

 be tter lea s e

 t erms f or the

 ph ys i c al

 st ore s i t de c ide s t o

 k eep . On 5 G, we

 e x pe ct TM US

 t o

 f o c u s on

 gaining

 c ompe t i tiv e

 and

 m ind-share

 ad v an t age s v ersu s i ts c ompe t i ti on

 wi th wider 5 G c o v er

 age,

 u s ing

 i ts 2 .5G Hz

 o f low

 band

 s pe ctrum. Veri z on

 i s rolling

 ou t i ts 5 G o ff ering

 u s ing

 i ts millime t er-wa v e

 s pe ctrum and

 will

 li k el y need

 a cc e ss to 3 .5G Hz

 o f s pe ctrum f or a

 m u c h

 wider co v erage , whi c h

 we

 t hin k will

 t a k e

 t ime

 to s o rt ou t. For t he

 immedia t e

 hori z on , we

 e x pe ct TM US ’s m anagemen t to foc u s on

 sy nergie s e x e c u ti on , ne tw ork in t egra t ion

 and

 th e

 5 G rollou t. On synergies , th e

 c ompan y an tic ipa tes NPV o f sy nergie s t o

 be

 c USD43bn

 (ne t o f USD15bn

 in

 in t egra t ion

 c o sts ) , dri v en

 b y USD6bn

 runra t e

 o f c o st s a v ing s o v ertime

 (3-4

 y ears f rom clo s e) , bu t th e

 COVID- 19

 s i tu a t ion , d y nami c na t ure

 o f t he s e ct or , li k el y en t ry o f D IS H

 and

 st ead y in c rea s e s in

 c ompe tit ion

 f rom cable

 lead

 u s t o

 be

 s ligh tly m ore

 c au ti ou s on

 t he

 c o st -sa v ing

 run-ra tes.

 For

 in tegration c o sts , we

 a ss ume

 USD14bn ; howe v e r, TM U S’s now

 larger scale

 and

 an y progre ss on

 D IS H ’s ne t work rollou t ( i f D IS H

 agree s t o

 t a k e

 on

 s ome

 t he

 de c ommi ss ioned

 s i t e s) m a y cr ea t e

 s ome

 o ffs e ts t ha t r edu c e

 in t egra t ion

 c o sts. During

 t he

 r e c en t r e s ul ts c on f eren c e

 c all

 ( 6

 M a y 2020) , T MU S’s m anagemen t r emained

 c on f iden t on

 m ee t ing

 or e xc eeding

 t he

 sy nerg y t arge ts.

  Potentia l f or

 futu re

 synergies: HSBC

 vs

 compa n y

 gui dance

  (USDm) Company guidance HSBC base case HSBC blue-sky scenario Run-rate synergies

 Cost of sales 4.0 3.1 6.1 SG&A/Others 2.0 2.2 5.5 Integration years 3-4 4 5-6 Costs to achieve 15,000 ~14,200 ~29,000 NPV of synergies net of integration costs (assuming ~8% WACC) ~43,000+ ~37,000 ~68,000 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

  On capex , T MUS

 ha s guided

 f or USD40bn

 o f in v e st men ts o v er t hree

 y ears and

 USD60bn

 o v er five

 y ears . W e

 belie v e

 t he

 ta rge te d

 in v e st men ts c lo s el y align

 wi th th e

 c ompe tit ion

 and

 s hould addre ss an y c on c ern s th a t stemm ed

 f rom Sprin t’s hi st ori c al

 under in v e st men ts in

 i ts ne tw orks . W e

 fo re c a st T MUS ’s ne tw ork cape x o v er 20...

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