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W e
r e v iew
t iming
o f pro v i s ion s, t rea t men t o f N P L s, and re f inan c ing
m ea s ure s a cr o ss ban k ing
syst ems in
EM Dire ct impa ct s eems worse
in
I ndia
and
La t in
Am eri c a
where t he
pandemi c emerged
la t er and
lo ck down s r emain
in
f orce
F or coun t rie s t ha t ha v e
o v ercome
t he
ou t brea k, lo ss e s m a y st ill o cc ur f rom t ouri sm, e x por ts, or energ y pri c e s
L atAm: Hardl y an y a ss e t quali ty de t eriora t ion
in
1 Q 20 , s o
N P L
r a t io s will
onl y r e f le ct t he impa ct o f t he
pandemi c f rom 2H20 . B an ks in
Br a z il
and
P eru
m ade
s igni f i c an t an t i c ipa t ory pro v i s ion s in
1 Q 20 . P eru
and
Colombia
appear mo st ad v an c ed
in
t erms o f loan reprogramming , while
Br a z il
and
M e x i c o
are
a t earl y st age s. EME A: An t i c ipa t ory pro v i s ion s in
m o st c oun t rie s, e s pe c iall y T urke y, E g y p t, and
U AE; f ull impa ct o f r e st ru ct uring s in
C EE and
Ru ss ia
li k el y no t v i s ible
un t il
2021 ; G CC
c oun t rie s pro v iding
m ore
f i sc al
s uppor t t o
indi v idual
and
c orpora t e
borrowers
As i a: Hea v ier e c onomi c impa ct on
t he
s ub c on t inen t, where
hea vy lo ck down s are
now being
li ft ed , wi t h
I ndian
N BF C s under par t i c ular pre ss ure ; ban ks in
T aiwan , K orea , and e v en
m ainland
China
s eeing
v ery limi t ed
r e st ru ct uring .
Carlos
Gomez-Lopez,
CFA
Head
of
EM
and
LatAm
Financials HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc. carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com
+1
212
525
5253
Neha
Agarwala,
CFA Analyst,
LatAm
Financials HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc. neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com
+1
212
525
5418
3
J une
2020
EM asset qua lit y
tre nd s
% of total loans reprogrammed
ents under forbearance India - Banks Yes; 10-50bp of loans in 1Q20
c10-30% loans under moratorium 30-40% Delinquencies, recoveries & loan restructuring India - NBFCs Yes; 20-70bp of loans in 1Q20 c25-35% loans under moratorium
30-100%
Loan restructuring, recovery Korea
None so far
Slight increase due to regulation 10-15%
Economic activity, market rates, pandemic Pakistan None in 1Q20 Early stages 15-25% Benchmark rates, FX Taiwan None so far So far 0.6% <1% Asset quality of overseas businesses Source: Company data, HSBC
Disclosures
&
Disclaimer
This
report
must
be
read
with
the
disclosures
and
the
analyst
certifications
in the
Disclosure
appendix,
and
with
the
Disclaimer,
which
forms
part
of
it.
Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc
View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Glo ba l Equities
Commercial
Banks
Tracking
asset
quality
in
the
time
of
COVID-19
GEM s
Finan cials
Country / Region Anticipatory provisions So far (latest available) Expected To watch Brazil Yes; 30-90bp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages, low-single digit 20-30% Taxes, politics, FX Mexico Mixed; 40-75bp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages 15-30% Fiscal response, oil prices Peru Yes; 35-50bp of loans in 1Q20 c33% for system by end-April 30-40% Pandemic Colombia Mixed; 35bp of loans in 1Q20 c36% for system by mid-May 40-50% Capital, FX, oil prices Chile Some; 4-6bp of loans in 1Q20 Around low teens 20-30% Pandemic, social unrest Argentina None so far na 15-20% FX, debt restructuring, inflation Hungary Yes; c. 231bp of 1Q20 loans na na Fiscal response, FX Poland Yes; 32-50bp of loans in 1Q20 c3-8% as at 1Q20 15-25% Interest rates, dividends, FX Czech Republic Yes, up to 120bps of loans in 1Q20 c5-18% as at 1Q20 10-15% Interest rates, dividends Russia Yes; 35bp to 6pp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages, low-single digit 15-20% Debt restructuring, FX, oil prices Turkey Yes. 80-130bps at private banks c10% for the system by mid-May 15-20% Performance of forborne loans South Africa Yes; half yearly reporting Between 10-15% by end-April na FX, social situation, fiscal response Kenya Yes; magnitude not deducible c10% for system by end-April 20-25% Taxes, FX, support from IMF Nigeria None in 1Q20 None so far 15-20% FX, oil prices Egypt Yes; up to 300bps Early stages <10% FX Qatar Yes Early stages 5-10% Potential countercyclical support UAE Yes; 16-170bps in 1Q20 Early stages <10% Sovereign support for corporates Saudi Arabia Mixed; 0-52bps of loans in 1Q20 Early stages <5% Mortgage subsidies Kuwait Q1 20 results pending na 5-10% Debt law Oman Yes None so far 10% Taxes; GCC support Mainland China Not disclosed, partial provision made for cli Restructured SME loans was c0.72% for system by end-April na Macro slowdown, investment risk
Contents
Brazil
3
Mexico
3
Chile
4
Colombia
4
Peru
5
Argentina
5
CEE
6
Russia
7
Turkey
7
South
Africa
8
Kenya
8
Nigeria
9
Egypt
9
Qatar
10
UAE
10
Saudi
Arabia
11
Kuwait
12
Oman
12
Mainland
China
13
India
–
Banks
14
India
–
NBFCs
14
Korea
15
Pakistan
15
Taiwan
16
Valuation
table
–
EMEA
18
Valuation
table
–
LatAm
19
Valuation
table
–
Non-Banks
20
Valuation
table
–
Exchanges
20
Disclosure appendix
21 Disclaimer
24
Latin America
Carlos
Gomez-Lopez,
CFA
Head
of
EM
and
LatAm
Financials HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc. carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com
+1
212
525
5253
Neha
Agarwala,
CFA Analyst,
LatAm
Financials HSBC
Securities
(USA)
Inc. neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com
+1
212
525
5418
For our view s on
t he
s e ctor re f er t o
A numbers game : quanti fy ing
t he
impa ct o f COVID-19
( 5 Ma y 2020) and
f or de ta il s on
a ss e t quali ty e v olu ti on
f or spe c i f i c stocks, re f er t o
La tAm Ban ks: Tra ck ing
impa ct on
a ss e t quali ty f rom COVID-19
( 2
J une
2020) .
Brazi l
N PL ratio: I ndi v idual
and
SMEs allowed
t o
de f er pa ym en ts b y 60-90
da ys and
t o
r enego t ia t e loan s wi t h
4
t o
6-mon t h
gra c e
period s; r e st ru ct ured
loan s will
no t be
c la ss i f ied
a s N P L s b y t he regula t or , bu t ban ks are
di sc lo s ing
t he
amoun ts in v ol v ed
(v ery small
b y Q 1) . M o st ban ks repo rte d
no
s igni fic an t a ss e t quali ty de t eriora ti on
in
1 Q 20 , bu t Bra de sc o (BBDC4
BZ, Bu y, CM P BRL18 .9 5) saw
a
ri s e
in
NPL
c rea ti on
in
SMEs and
indi v idual s, in
par t a tt ribu t ed
t o
COVID- 19 , whi c h
dela y ed
renego ti a t ion s Provis io ns: Mo st large
Braz ilian
ban ks m ade
an tic ipa tory re s erve s ba s ed
on
t heir e stim a t e s o f cr edi t lo ss e s a s o f 31
M arch ; s in c e
t hen , lo ck down s ha v e
been
e xte nded
and c on s en s u s GDP ha s de c lined , s o
addi t ional
pro v i s ion s s hould
be
e x pe cte d
in
c oming qua rters; on
a v erage , an tic ipa t ory re s erve s were
42%
o f tot al
pro v i s ion s m ade
in
1 Q 20 (range
o f 37-50%) and
equi v alen t to 40bp
o f a v erage
loan s. San ta nder Brasil
(SANB 11
BZ, Bu y, CM P BRL25 .5 0) , in
line
wi th t he
o th er San ta nder group
s ub s idiarie s, did
no t build
an y an t i c ipa t ory re s erve s. S an ta nder Group
(SAN SM, Hold , CM P EUR2 .0 4) crea te d
EUR1 .6 bn
in
pro v i s ion s a t th e
paren t c ompan y le v el . Extent of reprogramm ing: Ban ks were
start ing
t heir relie f programs a t th e
end
o f 1 Q 20 ; Brade sc o
had
de ferr ed
BRL1 . 4bn
in
pa ym en ts (0 . 2%
o f t o ta l
loan s) a s o f t he
end
o f qua rter. It au
di sc lo s ed
t ha t i t had
r e structu red
3 .9 %
o f i ts loan
po rtf olio
b y t he
end
o f April . Wh at to watch:
T here
ha v e
been
di sc u ss ion s abou t a
po ss ible
in c rea s e
in
t a x a ti on
f or ban ks; poli tic al
t urmoil
ha s wea k ened
t he
c urren cy and
c on tr ibu te d
t o
a
redu ct ion
in
c api ta l ra ti o s a t th e
ban ks in
1 Q 20 .
Mexic o
NPL ratio: Indi v idual
c u st omers allowed
t o
de fer pa ym en t for 4
m on ths (o cc a s ionall y up
t o s i x m on ths); regula tor doe s no t c on s ider t he s e
loan s re str u ct ured , t he y are
no t c ommuni c a te d
a s o v erdue
to t he
cr edi t bureau , bu t are
no t in c luded
in
NPL s I mpa ct o f NPL
ra t io
will
li k el y be
v i s ible
start ing
in
2 Q 20 ; partial
di sc lo s ure
o f amoun ts in v ol v ed . No
s igni f i c an t a ss e t quali ty de t eriora t ion
in
1 Q 20
Provis io ns: Mo st li ste d
ban ks (Ba no rte, San ta nder Me x i c o , and
SME lenders) made
no an tic ipa tory pro v i s ion s and
state d
t ha t regula ti on s m ade
i t di ffic ul t to pre-pro v i s ion
loan s Non-li ste d
ban ks (BBVA, Citi-Baname x, Sc o ti aban k) did
c rea te an tic ipa tory pro v i s ion s c o v ering
40-50bp
o f t he
loan
po rtf olio .
Tw o
li ste d
c ompanie s – In bursa
(GFI NBU RO MM, no t c o v ered , CM P M XN15 .2 0) and G en te ra
(GENT ERA*
MM, Bu y, CMP MXN9 .1 6) al s o
m ade
pro v i s ion s. T he
M e x i c an
regula t or pre fers ban ks t o
pre s erve
c api ta l
and
re ta in
lending
c apa c i ty and
i t ha s reque ste d
th a t ban ks po stp one
di v idend s Extent of reprogramm ing: Ban ks had
st a rte d
t heir deb t relie f programs b y t he
end
o f 1 Q 20 ; Santander Mexico’s (BSMXB MM, Bu y, CMP MXN14 .4 2) plan
c o v ers 16%
o f t o ta l loan s (SMEs and
c on s umer credi t) and
r egi strat ion
ended
on
28
April ; Bano rte (GFNO R TEO MM, Bu y, CMP MXN67 .2 5) ha s o ffe red
i ts plan
t o
SME, m o rtg age , and c on s umer borrowers , wi th a
t a k e-up
o f 18%
in
M arch , e x pe ct ed
t o
r i s e
t o
30% ; a t t ha t poin t we
e x pe ct th e
18%
o f tota l
loan s would
be
re structu red . Wh at to watch:
Fiscal
r e s pon s e
t o
t he
pandemi c ha s been
sc an t, whi c h
c ould
re s ul t in higher de f aul ts among
c ompanie s and
NPL s f or t he
ban ks; t he
pri c e
o f oil
impa cts t he
f i sc al s i tu a ti on
o f M e x i c o , i ts c redi t r a ti ng , and
t he
e xc hange
r a te.
Ch il e
NPL ratio: Pa ym en ts on
loan s c an
be
de fer red
wi th ou t ...
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