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COVID-19时期资产质量追,踪

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COVID-19时期资产质量追,踪

 

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   W e

 r e v iew

 t iming

 o f pro v i s ion s, t rea t men t o f N P L s, and re f inan c ing

 m ea s ure s a cr o ss ban k ing

 syst ems in

 EM  Dire ct impa ct s eems worse

 in

 I ndia

 and

 La t in

 Am eri c a

 where t he

 pandemi c emerged

 la t er and

 lo ck down s r emain

 in

 f orce

  F or coun t rie s t ha t ha v e

 o v ercome

 t he

 ou t brea k, lo ss e s m a y st ill o cc ur f rom t ouri sm, e x por ts, or energ y pri c e s

 L atAm: Hardl y an y a ss e t quali ty de t eriora t ion

 in

 1 Q 20 , s o

 N P L

 r a t io s will

 onl y r e f le ct t he impa ct o f t he

 pandemi c f rom 2H20 . B an ks in

 Br a z il

 and

 P eru

 m ade

 s igni f i c an t an t i c ipa t ory pro v i s ion s in

 1 Q 20 . P eru

 and

 Colombia

 appear mo st ad v an c ed

 in

 t erms o f loan reprogramming , while

 Br a z il

 and

 M e x i c o

 are

 a t earl y st age s. EME A: An t i c ipa t ory pro v i s ion s in

 m o st c oun t rie s, e s pe c iall y T urke y, E g y p t, and

 U AE; f ull impa ct o f r e st ru ct uring s in

 C EE and

 Ru ss ia

 li k el y no t v i s ible

 un t il

 2021 ; G CC

 c oun t rie s pro v iding

 m ore

 f i sc al

 s uppor t t o

 indi v idual

 and

 c orpora t e

 borrowers

 As i a: Hea v ier e c onomi c impa ct on

 t he

 s ub c on t inen t, where

 hea vy lo ck down s are

 now being

 li ft ed , wi t h

 I ndian

 N BF C s under par t i c ular pre ss ure ; ban ks in

 T aiwan , K orea , and e v en

 m ainland

 China

 s eeing

 v ery limi t ed

 r e st ru ct uring .

  Carlos

 Gomez-Lopez,

 CFA

 Head

 of

 EM

 and

 LatAm

 Financials HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc. carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com

 +1

 212

 525

 5253

 Neha

 Agarwala,

 CFA Analyst,

 LatAm

 Financials HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc. neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com

 +1

 212

 525

 5418

 3

 J une

 2020

  EM asset qua lit y

 tre nd s

 % of total loans reprogrammed

 ents under forbearance India - Banks Yes; 10-50bp of loans in 1Q20

 c10-30% loans under moratorium 30-40% Delinquencies, recoveries & loan restructuring India - NBFCs Yes; 20-70bp of loans in 1Q20 c25-35% loans under moratorium

  30-100%

  Loan restructuring, recovery Korea

 None so far

 Slight increase due to regulation 10-15%

 Economic activity, market rates, pandemic Pakistan None in 1Q20 Early stages 15-25% Benchmark rates, FX Taiwan None so far So far 0.6% <1% Asset quality of overseas businesses Source: Company data, HSBC

 Disclosures

 &

 Disclaimer

 This

 report

 must

 be

 read

 with

 the

 disclosures

 and

 the

 analyst

 certifications

 in the

 Disclosure

 appendix,

 and

 with

 the

 Disclaimer,

 which

 forms

 part

 of

 it.

 Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc

 View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Glo ba l Equities

 Commercial

 Banks

 Tracking

 asset

 quality

 in

 the

 time

 of

 COVID-19

 GEM s

 Finan cials

 Country / Region Anticipatory provisions So far (latest available) Expected To watch Brazil Yes; 30-90bp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages, low-single digit 20-30% Taxes, politics, FX Mexico Mixed; 40-75bp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages 15-30% Fiscal response, oil prices Peru Yes; 35-50bp of loans in 1Q20 c33% for system by end-April 30-40% Pandemic Colombia Mixed; 35bp of loans in 1Q20 c36% for system by mid-May 40-50% Capital, FX, oil prices Chile Some; 4-6bp of loans in 1Q20 Around low teens 20-30% Pandemic, social unrest Argentina None so far na 15-20% FX, debt restructuring, inflation Hungary Yes; c. 231bp of 1Q20 loans na na Fiscal response, FX Poland Yes; 32-50bp of loans in 1Q20 c3-8% as at 1Q20 15-25% Interest rates, dividends, FX Czech Republic Yes, up to 120bps of loans in 1Q20 c5-18% as at 1Q20 10-15% Interest rates, dividends Russia Yes; 35bp to 6pp of loans in 1Q20 Early stages, low-single digit 15-20% Debt restructuring, FX, oil prices Turkey Yes. 80-130bps at private banks c10% for the system by mid-May 15-20% Performance of forborne loans South Africa Yes; half yearly reporting Between 10-15% by end-April na FX, social situation, fiscal response Kenya Yes; magnitude not deducible c10% for system by end-April 20-25% Taxes, FX, support from IMF Nigeria None in 1Q20 None so far 15-20% FX, oil prices Egypt Yes; up to 300bps Early stages <10% FX Qatar Yes Early stages 5-10% Potential countercyclical support UAE Yes; 16-170bps in 1Q20 Early stages <10% Sovereign support for corporates Saudi Arabia Mixed; 0-52bps of loans in 1Q20 Early stages <5% Mortgage subsidies Kuwait Q1 20 results pending na 5-10% Debt law Oman Yes None so far 10% Taxes; GCC support Mainland China Not disclosed, partial provision made for cli Restructured SME loans was c0.72% for system by end-April na Macro slowdown, investment risk

  Contents

 Brazil

 3

 Mexico

 3

 Chile

 4

 Colombia

 4

 Peru

 5

 Argentina

 5

 CEE

 6

 Russia

 7

 Turkey

 7

 South

 Africa

 8

 Kenya

 8

 Nigeria

 9

 Egypt

 9

 Qatar

 10

 UAE

 10

 Saudi

 Arabia

 11

 Kuwait

 12

 Oman

 12

 Mainland

 China

 13

 India

 –

 Banks

 14

 India

 –

 NBFCs

 14

 Korea

 15

 Pakistan

 15

 Taiwan

 16

 Valuation

 table

 –

 EMEA

 18

 Valuation

 table

 –

 LatAm

 19

 Valuation

 table

 –

 Non-Banks

 20

 Valuation

 table

 –

 Exchanges

 20

 Disclosure appendix

 21 Disclaimer

 24

 Latin America

 Carlos

 Gomez-Lopez,

 CFA

 Head

 of

 EM

 and

 LatAm

 Financials HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc. carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com

 +1

 212

 525

 5253

 Neha

 Agarwala,

 CFA Analyst,

 LatAm

 Financials HSBC

 Securities

 (USA)

 Inc. neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com

 +1

 212

 525

 5418

 For our view s on

 t he

 s e ctor re f er t o

 A numbers game : quanti fy ing

 t he

 impa ct o f COVID-19

 ( 5 Ma y 2020) and

 f or de ta il s on

 a ss e t quali ty e v olu ti on

 f or spe c i f i c stocks, re f er t o

 La tAm Ban ks: Tra ck ing

 impa ct on

 a ss e t quali ty f rom COVID-19

 ( 2

 J une

 2020) .

 Brazi l

  N PL ratio: I ndi v idual

 and

 SMEs allowed

 t o

 de f er pa ym en ts b y 60-90

 da ys and

 t o

 r enego t ia t e loan s wi t h

 4

 t o

 6-mon t h

 gra c e

 period s; r e st ru ct ured

 loan s will

 no t be

 c la ss i f ied

 a s N P L s b y t he regula t or , bu t ban ks are

 di sc lo s ing

 t he

 amoun ts in v ol v ed

 (v ery small

 b y Q 1) .  M o st ban ks repo rte d

 no

 s igni fic an t a ss e t quali ty de t eriora ti on

 in

 1 Q 20 , bu t Bra de sc o (BBDC4

 BZ, Bu y, CM P BRL18 .9 5) saw

 a

 ri s e

 in

 NPL

 c rea ti on

 in

 SMEs and

 indi v idual s, in

 par t a tt ribu t ed

 t o

 COVID- 19 , whi c h

 dela y ed

 renego ti a t ion s  Provis io ns: Mo st large

 Braz ilian

 ban ks m ade

 an tic ipa tory re s erve s ba s ed

 on

 t heir e stim a t e s o f cr edi t lo ss e s a s o f 31

 M arch ; s in c e

 t hen , lo ck down s ha v e

 been

 e xte nded

 and c on s en s u s GDP ha s de c lined , s o

 addi t ional

 pro v i s ion s s hould

 be

 e x pe cte d

 in

 c oming qua rters; on

 a v erage , an tic ipa t ory re s erve s were

 42%

 o f tot al

 pro v i s ion s m ade

 in

 1 Q 20 (range

 o f 37-50%) and

 equi v alen t to 40bp

 o f a v erage

 loan s.  San ta nder Brasil

 (SANB 11

 BZ, Bu y, CM P BRL25 .5 0) , in

 line

 wi th t he

 o th er San ta nder group

 s ub s idiarie s, did

 no t build

 an y an t i c ipa t ory re s erve s. S an ta nder Group

 (SAN SM, Hold , CM P EUR2 .0 4) crea te d

 EUR1 .6 bn

 in

 pro v i s ion s a t th e

 paren t c ompan y le v el .  Extent of reprogramm ing: Ban ks were

 start ing

 t heir relie f programs a t th e

 end

 o f 1 Q 20 ; Brade sc o

 had

 de ferr ed

 BRL1 . 4bn

 in

 pa ym en ts (0 . 2%

 o f t o ta l

 loan s) a s o f t he

 end

 o f qua rter. It au

 di sc lo s ed

 t ha t i t had

 r e structu red

 3 .9 %

 o f i ts loan

 po rtf olio

 b y t he

 end

 o f April .  Wh at to watch:

 T here

 ha v e

 been

 di sc u ss ion s abou t a

 po ss ible

 in c rea s e

 in

 t a x a ti on

 f or ban ks; poli tic al

 t urmoil

 ha s wea k ened

 t he

 c urren cy and

 c on tr ibu te d

 t o

 a

 redu ct ion

 in

 c api ta l ra ti o s a t th e

 ban ks in

 1 Q 20 .

 Mexic o

  NPL ratio: Indi v idual

 c u st omers allowed

 t o

 de fer pa ym en t for 4

 m on ths (o cc a s ionall y up

 t o s i x m on ths); regula tor doe s no t c on s ider t he s e

 loan s re str u ct ured , t he y are

 no t c ommuni c a te d

 a s o v erdue

 to t he

 cr edi t bureau , bu t are

 no t in c luded

 in

 NPL s  I mpa ct o f NPL

 ra t io

 will

 li k el y be

 v i s ible

 start ing

 in

 2 Q 20 ; partial

 di sc lo s ure

 o f amoun ts in v ol v ed .  No

 s igni f i c an t a ss e t quali ty de t eriora t ion

 in

 1 Q 20

  Provis io ns: Mo st li ste d

 ban ks (Ba no rte, San ta nder Me x i c o , and

 SME lenders) made

 no an tic ipa tory pro v i s ion s and

 state d

 t ha t regula ti on s m ade

 i t di ffic ul t to pre-pro v i s ion

 loan s  Non-li ste d

 ban ks (BBVA, Citi-Baname x, Sc o ti aban k) did

 c rea te an tic ipa tory pro v i s ion s c o v ering

 40-50bp

 o f t he

 loan

 po rtf olio .

  Tw o

 li ste d

 c ompanie s – In bursa

 (GFI NBU RO MM, no t c o v ered , CM P M XN15 .2 0) and G en te ra

 (GENT ERA*

 MM, Bu y, CMP MXN9 .1 6) al s o

 m ade

 pro v i s ion s.  T he

 M e x i c an

 regula t or pre fers ban ks t o

 pre s erve

 c api ta l

 and

 re ta in

 lending

 c apa c i ty and

 i t ha s reque ste d

 th a t ban ks po stp one

 di v idend s  Extent of reprogramm ing: Ban ks had

 st a rte d

 t heir deb t relie f programs b y t he

 end

 o f 1 Q 20 ; Santander Mexico’s (BSMXB MM, Bu y, CMP MXN14 .4 2) plan

 c o v ers 16%

 o f t o ta l loan s (SMEs and

 c on s umer credi t) and

 r egi strat ion

 ended

 on

 28

 April ; Bano rte (GFNO R TEO MM, Bu y, CMP MXN67 .2 5) ha s o ffe red

 i ts plan

 t o

 SME, m o rtg age , and c on s umer borrowers , wi th a

 t a k e-up

 o f 18%

 in

 M arch , e x pe ct ed

 t o

 r i s e

 t o

 30% ; a t t ha t poin t we

 e x pe ct th e

 18%

 o f tota l

 loan s would

 be

 re structu red .  Wh at to watch:

 Fiscal

 r e s pon s e

 t o

 t he

 pandemi c ha s been

 sc an t, whi c h

 c ould

 re s ul t in higher de f aul ts among

 c ompanie s and

 NPL s f or t he

 ban ks; t he

 pri c e

 o f oil

 impa cts t he

 f i sc al s i tu a ti on

 o f M e x i c o , i ts c redi t r a ti ng , and

 t he

 e xc hange

 r a te.

 Ch il e

   NPL ratio: Pa ym en ts on

 loan s c an

 be

 de fer red

 wi th ou t ...

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