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Th e
ef f ec t s
o f
th e
c or ona v i r us
cr i s i s
on
w or k e r s
Fl as h
f i n d i n g s
f r om
th e
R e s o l u ti on
F oun d a t i on ’ s
co r o n a v ir u s s ur ve y
1 6 M a y
2020
L aur a
G ar d i n e r
&
Han n ah
S l augh t e r
T he
c o rona virus
c ris is
ha s
hit
w o rk e rs
ha rd:
t he
numb e rs
o f
t ho s e
f urlo ughed
a nd
th o s e ne w ly
c la iming
U nive rs a l
C redit
illus t ra t e s
th e
s ca l e .
T o
d a te ,
ho w eve r,
w e
ha ve
h a d ve ry
lim it e d
inf o rm a t io n
a bo ut
w hic h
t y p e s
o f
p e op le
ha ve
b een
mo st
affec t e d .
I n
t his s po t lig ht ,
we
b e gin
t o
f ill
t his
g a p
wit h
f las h
f inding s
fr om
t he
Re s o l ut io n
F o unda t ion’ s ne w
c o rona virus
s urve y .
T o
b e g in,
w e
f ind
that
n ea rly
on e - third
o f
lo w e r - p aid
e mp lo y ee s
ha ve
lo s t
j ob s
o r
b ee n f urlo ughe d,
c omp are d
t o
less
tha n
o ne - in - ten
to p
ea r n er s ,
wit h
t he s e
exp er i en ces
a l s o m or e
c ommon
a mon g
a t y p ic a l
e mp lo y ee s .
T h e
C o rona virus
J ob
Re t e nt io n
Sc he m e
ha s b een
we ll - r eceiv ed
b y
w o rk e rs ,
wit h
mo re
tha n
ha lf
o f
th o s e
f url o ughed
h a ppy
a bou t th a t
o ut c om e ,
p e rha p s
in
p art
b eca us e
a
f if t h
o f
them
exp ect
to
r em a i n
on
t he ir
full
p a y . T h e
G o ver nm en t’ s
s ch em e
f o r
th e
sel f - e mp lo y e d
is
less
w e ll - unde rs t oo d,
wit h
thre e - in - t e n
w o rk e rs
that
did
s om e
s e lf - e mp lo y e d
w o rk
p rio r
t o
c o rona virus
b e lie ving
t he y
a r e ine lig ib le
f or
s uppo rt .
T urning
t o
t he
f ut ure ,
o ve r
ha lf
o f
t he
gro up
mo s t
lik e ly
t o
b e
w o rk ing
fr om
ho me
a t p r es en t
– hig he r
ea rne rs
– e x p ec t
t o
w o rk
f ro m
hom e
mo re
a f t e r
c o rona virus
tha n
t he y did
b e f o r e.
Bu t
m or e
i mpo rta nt ly ,
on e - in - e ig ht
of
t h os e
w ho
a r e
c urre nt ly
w o rk ing think s
it
lik e ly
that
t he y
w ill
lo s e
t he ir
j ob
o ve r
th e
n ext
th r ee
mon th s .
T h e
s ta k es
a r e hig h
f o r
m a ny
in
t o da y ’ s
ne w
w o rld
o f
w o rk .
I n
t his
s po t lig ht ,
w e
p r e s e nt
t he
f irs t
re s ult s
f ro m
ou r
ne w
s urve y
o f
w o rk ing - a g e
a dult s
in
t he UK ,
w hic h
ca p ture s
w ide - ra ng ing
evide nc e
on
t he
e ff ec t s
t h at
t he
c o rona vir us
c ris is
ha s
h a d on
j ob s ,
b en ef i ts ,
inc om e s ,
living
sit uat io ns
a nd
f u tu r e
exp ecta ti on s .
Her e ,
w e
f oc u s
on
t h e la bo ur
m a rk e t
e x p e rie nc e ,
a nd
i n
p art i cula r
h ow
t his
dif f e r s
ac ro ss
t he
ea rning s
dis t rib ut io n . I n
f ut ure
s po t lig ht s
w e
w ill
e x a m ine
o t he r
a r ea s
s uc h
a s
la bo ur
m a r k e t
e x p e rie n ce
b y
a g e . 1
The
s urve y
w a s
de s ig n e d
a nd
c omm is s io ned
b y
t he
Re s o lut io n
F o unda t io n,
in
p art ne rs hip wit h
t he
H ea lt h
F o unda t io n
( a lt ho ug h
t he
vie ws
in
t his
no t e
are
no t
ne ce ss a rily
t ho s e
o f
t h e
H ea t h
F o unda t io n) .
It
was
c o nduc t e d
using
a n
o nline
int e rvie w
a dm inis t ere d
t o
m e mb e r s
o f t he
Y ouGo v
P lc
U K
p a ne l ,
w hic h
is
m a de
up
o f
8 00 , 000 +
indi vidua ls
w ho
ha ve
a g ree d
t o
ta k e p art
in
s urve y s .
T he
t o t a l
sa mp l e
si ze
w a s
6 , 00 5
a dult s ,
a g e d
1 8 - 65
a nd
f ie ldw o rk
w a s unde rta k e n
during
6 - 11
M ay
2020 .
F ig ure s
p re s e nt e d
he re
ha ve
b ee n
w e ig ht e d
a nd
are re p re s e nt a t ive
o f
a ll
G B
a dult s
( a g e d
1 8 + )
acc o rding
t o
a g e ,
g e nde r,
a nd
re g io n . 2
Furl o ug h i n g ,
a nd
j ob
a nd
hou r s
l o sse s,
a r e
much
mor e
commo n
e x p e r i e n ce s
f o r
l o we r - e ar nin g
em plo y ees
W e
f i r s t
f o cu s
on
th e
exten t
to
w h i ch
p eo p l e
w ho
w ere
i n
em p l o y ee
j ob s
b ef o r e
th e c o rona virus
c ris is
ha ve
e x p e rie nc e d
c ha ng e s
a ss o c ia t e d
w i t h
re duc t io ns
in
ea rning s
a nd/ o r t he
a mount
o f
w o rk
b e ing
done .
F ig ure
1
s h ow s
a
c le a r
g ra die nt
in
j ob s
a nd
ho urs
lo ss e s ,
a nd
f url o ug hing ,
ac ro ss
t he
ea rning s dis t rib ut io n.
C lo s e
t o
o ne - third
( 3 0
p e r
ce nt )
o f
t he
lo w e s t - ea rning
f if t h
o f
e mp lo y ee s
ha ve b ee n
f urlo ughed
o r
l o s t
t he ir
j ob ,
c omp a r e d
t o
less
tha n
o ne - in - ten
( 8
p er
c en t)
o f
th e
to p f if t h
o f
e mp lo y ee
ea rn e rs
p re - c o rona virus .
I n
c o nt ra s t ,
t h e
dis t rib ut io n
o f
c o r o na virus - re la t e d ho urs
l o ss e s
( that
are
a ss o c ia t e d
w i t h
p a y
r e duc t io ns )
b y
p rio r
ea rning s
le ve l
is
m uc h
less s t a rk . 3
Fig ur e
1
O ne - third
o f
t h e
l o w es t - p aid
f if t h
o f
e mp lo y ee s
ha ve
b ee n
f urlo ug h e d,
o r
lo s t j ob s
o r
ho urs
P r opo r tio n
o f
emp lo y ees
w h o
h a ve
ex p erience d
j ob
ch a n g es
since
t h e
co r o n a vir u s o u t b r e ak ,
b y
e mp l o ye e
e ar n i n g s
q u i n t il e
p r i o r
t o
t h e
o u t b r e ak :
U K,
6 - 11
Ma y
2 02 0
N ot e s :
Base
=
a ll
U K
a d u lt s
a ge d
1 8 - 6 5
w h o
h a d
a n
emp l o y ee
j ob
p ri o r
t o
t h e
c o ro n av i r u s
o u t b rea k ,
a n d
p ro v i ded i n f orm a t i o n
o n
t h eir
u s u a l
ea rn i n g s
p ri o r
t o
t h e
c o ro n av i ru s
o u t b rea k
( a p ar t
f ro m
f o r
t h e
‘ a ll
emp l o y ee s ’
ca teg o ry) . Ear n ing s
q u int ile s
ar e
b ase d
o n
ne t
( t a k e - h o m e)
u s u a l
emp l o y ee
p a y
p ri o r
t o
t h e
c o ro n av i r u s
o u t b rea k .
‘ F u rl o u g h ed ’ a n d
‘ lo st
j ob ’
r e l a te
t o
e m p lo y ee s’
m a in
j ob ;
‘ lo st
h o u rs
a n d
p a y
d u e
t o
c o r o n av ir u s’
ca p t u r e s
e m p lo y ee s
n o t
in
e it h e r o f
t h es e
f i rs t
t w o
gro u p s
w h o
ar e
w o rk i n g
few e r
h our s
t h a n
t h e i r
us ua l
ho ur s
b e f o r e
t h e
c o r ona vi r us
outb r e a k ,
w hi c h t h ey
s t a te
h as
h a ppened
f o r
c o ro n av i ru s - rela t ed
reas o n s ,
a n d
w h o
h av e
a l s o
ex p eri en c ed
d ecreases
i n
ear n i n g s .
So u rc e :
R F
a n a ly sis
o f
Y ouG ov ,
A d u lt s
a ge d
18
t o
6 5
and
t he
c or on av i r u s
( C O VI D - 1 9) .
O ve ra ll,
1 5
p e r
ce nt
o f
e mp lo y ee s
ha d
b ee n
f urlo ughed
fr om
t he ir
m a in
j ob
in
ea rly
M a y
( a fig ure
that
ris e s
t o
2 1
p e r
ce nt
f o r
p riva t e
s ec t o r
w o rk e rs ) ,
w hile
a ro und
3
p e r
ce n t
o f em p l o y ees
( a
f i g u r e
th a t
r i s es
to
4
p er
cent
w h en
th e
sel f - e mp lo y e d
are
inc luded)
ha d
lo s t t he
m a in
j ob
t he y
h a d
p rio r
t o
t he
c o rona viru s
o ut b rea k .
I n
num e ric a l
t e rm s ,
o ur
s urve y
s ug g e s t s
a ro und
4 . 1
m illio n
o f
t he
U K’ s
2 7 . 9
m illio n
e mp lo y ee s ( i n
D ecem b er - Fe b r u ar y
2020 )
ha ve
b ee n
p l ace d
on
f url o ug h,
s om e w hat
lo w e r
tha n
t h e
6 .3 - 7 . 5 m illio n
j ob s
that
f irm s
ha ve
c la im e d
J RS
s uppo r t
f o r
f ro m
H M
Reve nue
&
C ust om s
up
t o
t his po int .
T his
discre p a nc y
is
lik e ly
t o
b e
e x p la in e d
b y
a
r a n g e
o f
f a cto r s :
th e
f act
th a t
p eo p l e
ca n ha ve
mo re
tha n
o ne
j ob
( a n
is s ue
w e
re t urn
t o
b elo w )
f o r
e x a mp le ;
th a t
so me
w o rk e rs
that w ere
f urlo ughed
ha ve
s ince
b ee n
b ro ught
b ac k
int o
t he
w o rk p la ce ;
a nd
that
s om e
s urve y re s po ndent s
p e rha p s
w ere
unf a m ilia r
wit h
t he
ter m
‘ f urlo ug h’ ,
le a d ing
t o
a
deg ree
o f
unde r - rec o rding .
L i k ew i s e,
th e
4
p er
cent
o f
w o rk e rs
that
ha ve
lo s t
t he ir
j ob s
is
e q uiva le nt
to
1 .4 m illio n
w o rk e rs
– a
fig ure
w hic h
is
c o ns is t e nt
wit h
ea rly
dat a
on
inflo ws
t o
U nive rs a l
C redi t 4 , a nd
in
t he
s a m e
b a llp a rk
a s ,
a lt ho ug h
lo w e r
tha n ,
f o r eca s ts
f o r
une mp lo y m e nt
increa s e s
in t he
s ec ond
q ua rte r
o f
2 0 2 0 . 5
O vera ll ,
i t
s eem s
r ea s on a b l e
to
s u gg es t
th a t
th e
es ti m ates
o f f urlo ug h ing
a nd
j ob
lo ss
p ro vide d
b y
o ur
s urv e y
m a y
b e
a t
t he
c o ns erva t ive
e nd
o f
t he s p ectr um .
Fig ur e
2
E mp lo y ees
i n
a t y p i ca l
w o r k
a r e
m o r e
li k el y
t o
ha v e
been
f u r lou g hed ,
o r
lo s t j ob s
or
h ou r s
P r opo r tio n
o f
emp lo y ees
w h o
h a ve
ex p erience d
j ob
ch a n g es
since
t h e
co r o n a vir u s
o u t b r e ak ,
b y
t y p e
o f
w o rk
arra n ge m e n t
p ri o r
t o
c o ro n av i ru s :
U K,
6 - 11
Ma y
2 02 0
N ot e s :
Base
=
a ll
U K
a d u lt s
a ge d
1 8 - 6 5
w h o
h a d
a n
e m p l oyee
j ob
p r i or
t o
t h e
c o r on av i r u s
ou t b r e a k .
Emp l o y ee s
ca n
fa ll
int o
mu lt ip l e
a t y p i ca l
w o r k
ca teg o r i e s.
‘ F u r lo u g h e d ’
a n d
‘ lo st
j ob ’
r e la te
t o
e m p lo y ee s’
m a in
j ob ;
‘ lo st
ho ur s
a nd
p a y d u e
t o
c o ro n av i ru s ’
ca p t u res
emp l o y ees
n o t
i n
ei t h e r
o f
t h es e
f i rs t
t w o
gro u p s
w h o
are
w o rk i n g
fewer
h o u rs
t h a n
t h eir
u s u a l
h o u rs
b ef o re
t h e
c o ro n av i ru s
o u t b rea k ,
w h i c h
t h ey
s t a te
h as
h a pp e n ed
f o r
c o ro n av i ru s - rela t ed
reas o n s , a nd
w ho
ha ve
a l s o
ex p e ri en c ed
d ecrea...