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大石油与气候:迎接挑战【完整版】

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大石油与气候:迎接挑战【完整版】

 

  By: Gordon Gray, Tarek Soliman and Kim Fustier

 Equities

 Oil & Gas

 January 2020 www.research.hsbc.com

 S P O TL I G H T

 Big Oils and Climate

 Warming to the challenge

 Managing the energy transition is likely to be the defining issue for the major international oil companies (IOCs) in the coming years

  The core dilemma: to adapt quickly enough to thrive in the transition, without compromising returns or shareholder value

  We feature eight large cap IOCs and analyse their strategies as they grapple with the climate challenge

  Play interview with

 Gordon Gray and Tarek Soliman

 Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.

  Why read this report?

  Push & pull factors - demand risks, shareholder pressure, policy changes, technology - mean climate is the defining issue for ‘Big Oil’  Majors could generate USD600bn of investible capital by 2050 to be redeployed as significant energy landscape uncertainties loom  Oil sector faces the ‘carbon challenge’ of meeting climate ambitions while minimising risk of compromising on future returns and value

 Gordon Gray* Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity Research HSBC Bank plc gordon.gray@hsbcib.com

 +44 20 7991 6787 Climate rising up the strategic priorities Carbon emissions and the energy transition are increasingly important priorities for public oil & gas companies and their stakeholders – including shareholders, policy makers and civil society. Certain companies have made public long-term ambitions (in some cases out to 2050) to

 drastically cut the carbon intensity of their energy supply mix, or even become net CO 2 neutral – * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations signalling the potential for significant future changes in their nature. In this report we address a number of elements related to the ‘carbon challenge’ for Big Oil, including:  Key valuation implications for investors when considering the oil majors and the energy transition, such as future expected returns and the sustainability of dividends  Composition of the oil majors’ upstream portfolios, including estimating the amount of investible capital which could be redeployed and assessing ‘stranded asset’ risk  Climate strategies of 8 International Oil Companies (IOCs) in Europe and the US, comparing the companies’ future ambitions regarding managing the energy transition  Scenarios of the potential pace and scale of change in company asset portfolios required to meet long-dated climate ambitions related to energy supply composition between oil, gas and from low-carbon sources  Analysis of the companies’ involvement in low-carbon businesses / alternative energy, spending plans to 2025 and issues raised by questions over returns and scale-up feasibility  A study of the oil majors’ upstream emissions intensity and how each is likely to evolve over time as upstream portfolios change  Thoughts on themes related to the dynamics of the energy transition, the rise in ESG investing, carbon emissions accounting for oil & gas companies, the materiality of certain climate policies (such as carbon pricing) and the merits of energy scenarios The shares of the integrated oils have underperformed broad markets for much of the past eight years, largely as a result of market scepticism on their ability to deliver long-term growth, returns and dividend sustainability. The energy transition adds to the challenges the companies face, but also the opportunities for those that can successfully transition their businesses while limiting the risk of returns erosion, maintaining dividends and enhancing shareholder value.

  Contents

  Why read this report? 1 Related research 4 Executive Summary 5 Facts and figures 9 Issues for company valuation 10 The energy transition 15 The lie of the land 23 How might Big Oil evolve? 29 Company asset bases 35 Majors and low-carbon 47 Energy-climate scenarios 56 Climate policies in shadows 64 How the companies stack up 68 Company profiles 81 BP (Buy, TP 600p) 82 Chevron (Hold, TP USD118) 86 ENI (Hold, TP EUR15.0) 90 Equinor (Buy, TP NOK210) 95 ExxonMobil (Hold, TP USD74) 100 Repsol (Buy, TP EUR16.0) 104 Royal Dutch Shell (Hold, A/B shares TP 2,520p/2,520p) 110 Total (Buy, TP EUR57.0) 115 Glossary of terms 120 Valuation and risks 122 Disclosure appendix 125 Disclaimer 128

 Big Oils and climate

  Uncertainties on the horizon ...

 Oil & gas carbon emissions by activity:

 88% from use of products sold

  Climate change is a major strategic issue for ‘Big Oil’:

  10% from direct operations

  2% from indirect energy consumption

 Future demand risks

 Change in returns as sector invests in clean energy

  Evolving shareholder and societal expectations

  … and significant change could potentially come in the next decades …

 100%

  80% Certain oil companies have made public long-term ambitions to cut the carbon intensity of their energy supply mix by up to 50% or even become 60% net CO 2

 neutral

 by 2050

 40% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

 ... and capital deployment decisions are looming Oil sector faces the ‘carbon challenge’ of meeting climate ambitions while minimising risk of compromising on future returns and value

 USD600bn Potential capital available for redeployment out to 2040 ~20% internal rate of return in upstream oil & gas 5-9 % internal rate of return in renewable power

 Source: HSBC estimates Emissions intensity index (2015 = 100)

  Related research

 Recommended reading …

 Oil & gas reports  Big Oils in 2020: Sector finally at a turning point? (10 Jan 20)  Oil in 2020: Political tension adds to an uncertain outlook (9 Jan 20)  Global LNG The glut abates, the crunch awaits (26 Mar 18)  Climate OPEC? US rushes out; oil majors flood in (27 Sep 18)

  ESG reports  HSBC Climate Radar Top conviction themes: Solar and Energy Storage (21 Nov 19)  Fragile Planet The politics and economics of the low-carbon transition (10 Apr 19)  The second frontier Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change (15 Jan 19)  Global ESG Playbook Generating alpha across 19 sectors (25 Oct 18)  A global energy vision for a 2°C world Looking out to 2050 (7 Feb 17)

  Alternative energy reports  Upstream solar: Soft China prolongs price pressure, easing in 2020e (19 Nov 19)  Offshore wind: Going global (1 Feb 19)  Energy storage: How to make the sums stack up (25 Apr 18)  The rise of renewables: Low oil prices are no obstacle to growth (26 Apr 2015)

  Executive Summary

  Climate and the energy transition has risen up the strategic agenda for oil & gas companies in recent years, we see it as a defining issue  Direction of travel of many large oil companies to 2050 appears clear but uncertainties remain around the pace, route and end-destination  Big Oil faces difficult trade-off in managing desire to scale up capital redeployed into low-carbon businesses with the returns available

 Climate - Big Oil’s key medium-term strategic issue

  Repsol recently committed to become ‘net’ emissions neutral by 2050 …

 … but on average, we expect 2% pa hydrocarbon production growth to 2025

 We look at climate strategies and investments of 8 US and European Oil & Gas Majors

  Only about 5% of company value comes from assets producing post 2040 Some of Big Oil’s public long-term aspirations around the energy transition have become increasingly ambitious in recent years – signposting to the market intentions to potentially drastically change energy supply portfolios over the next 30 years. Making material cuts to company carbon intensity – depending on how it is measured – is often likely to entail potentially significant future investment in non-oil and gas activities, outside of Big Oil’s historical core competency in some cases (see How might Big Oil evolve? on page 29). Such long-dated public climate ambitions come in the context of both increasing scale of dedicated non-oil & gas spending budgets at Oil Majors - on average accounting for 5-7% of annual capex - despite self-imposed capital constraint at a company level. However these figures are dwarfed by an estimated USD600bn of investible capital which we believe the current liquids portfolios could generate out to 2040 (capital beyond that required to exploit their existing reserves base), giving them huge flexibility to adapt over time. The major producers face significant uncertainty in the path, scale, pace and end-point of the energy transition out to 2050 and beyond - in this report we analyse the approaches to climate of a sample of 8 large-cap oil and gas companies across Europe (BP, ENI, Equinor, Repsol, Shell, Total) and the US (Chevron and ExxonMobil), with European Majors typically further advanced in the scope and ambition of future climate ambitions, but we are seeing welcome improvements across the board – see summary on page 7 company conclusions. We estimate that a relatively limited proportion – on average 5% – of discounted company present values are derived from liquid hydrocarbon assets that are expected to be produced beyond 2040, meaning the risk of ‘stranded assets’ looks fairly limited in our view. However we see the extent to which companies are able to pursue measures to achieve climate goals, without compromising risk-adjusted returns and while maintaining dividends as a key issue going forward. We also believe that the ability for the market to assign representative value to non-oil & gas ventures within Big Oil is dependent on providing greater disclosure on expected future and scaling businesses (see Majors and low-carbon on page 47).

  Carbon challenge for Big Oil – sector conclusions

  See ‘Company asset bases’ on page 35

 See ‘Majors and low-carbon’ on page 47  The sector faces unprecedented climate-related uncertainty including future demand risks, a change in returns mix from new-energy ventures, evolving shareholder and societal expectations, questions over the sustainability of dividend pay...

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