Zhang Jie
Our world today is going through accelerated transformation unseen in a century. The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is gaining steam， the international balance of power is undergoing profound adjustment， and Chinas development is facing new strategic opportunities. The Asia-Pacific region， as the center of global economic growth and the focus of major country competition， has fully embodied the characteristics of the once-in-a-century changes in its overall development momentum. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of traditional and non-traditional security and the US comprehensive strategic competition with China， major forces in the region are having realignment and reconfiguration. Small and medium-sized countries are cautiously weighing between strategic autonomy and choosing sides. What has a more fundamental impact in the long run is the profound adjustments of the industrial chains and supply chains in the region. In the face of regional changes， China has the courage to take on its responsibilities， and in practice， commit itself to maintaining a just， inclusive， balanced and cooperative regional order. In particular， the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs held in December 2023 has pointed the direction， offered a guide to action and a path to practice for advancing the building of an Asia-Pacific community with a shared future.
Continued Reconfiguration of Regional Forces Exacerbates Regional Turbulence
The ongoing reconfiguration of major forces in the Asia-Pacific region keeps shaping the regional security pattern. For instance， the US alliance system is developing in the direction of “expansion” and “upgrading”， which has become a major destabilizing factor that intensifies confrontation between regional camps and volatility in the security situation.
In recent years， despite the continuation of the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict， the US has not weakened its “attention” to the “Indo-Pacific” region， and still regards China as its biggest strategic competitor. With “integrated deterrence” as the strategic guide， the US has continued to consolidate its absolute military superiority in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023， the US prioritized deepening the cooperation within its alliance system. To be specific， it strengthened the US-Japan and US-Philippines bilateral alliances with Japan and the Philippines as the “dual centers”. Building on this， the US further promoted US-Japan-ROK， US-Japan-Philippines， US-Australia-Philippines and other small-scale multilateral military cooperation， including advancing information-sharing， upgrading joint exercises and training， and enhancing interoperability. It also pushed Japan and the Philippines， Japan and Australia， Australia and the Philippines， among other countries， to negotiate and sign Reciprocal Access Agreements and Visiting Forces Agreements. All of these moves are aimed at enhancing the integration of the US military alliance and its war-fighting capability of military operations.
Breaking down geographical constraints and realizing the strategic coordination between the Asia-Pacific alliance system and NATO has become the focus of the US military security strategy. In July 2023， NATO once again invited Japan， the ROK， Australia， and New Zealand to participate in its summit and organized a group meeting between leaders of NATO member states and leaders of the four countries， with the intention of reinforcing the “determination” to work closely with each other. On this， China points out that although NATO claims to be a defensive alliance， it keeps expanding its power beyond its borders and stirring up confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region. NATOs move eastward into the Asia-Pacific region will only stir up regional tensions and trigger confrontation and even a “new Cold War”.
Under the context of the US strategic competition with China， major countries in the Asia-Pacific region have adjusted their foreign strategies and accelerated their pace of picking sides. Among them， Japan， the ROK， Australia and other countries have further turned to the US and strengthened military cooperation within the alliance system. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis， Japans “two in one” pattern of aggressive diplomacy and offensive security policy have been further manifested. Taking advantage of the opportunity of G7 presidency in 2023， Japan actively helped the US align its “Indo-Pacific” allies with NATO by inviting the ROK， Australia， India， Indonesia， Vietnam to the G7 Summit. In the meantime， Japan has continued to prioritize Southeast Asia and helped the US strengthen maritime security cooperation with ASEAN countries. In April 2023， Japan established the Official Security Assistance mechanism， through which it focused on strengthening maritime security cooperation with the Philippines， Malaysia， and Vietnam. In December of the same year， Japan delivered a coastal radar system to the Philippines， the first major transfer of military equipment since the lifting of Japans post-war ban on defense exports in 2014.
In early 2023， Japan and the ROK reconciled at the political level. On that basis， the US， Japan and the ROK have worked actively to build their trilateral relations. In the same year， these three countries held several rounds of meetings， including the first Economic and Security Dialogue and the trilateral Camp David Summit， to extend trilateral cooperation from the past security-oriented cooperation to economy， technology and other areas， and to expand cooperation from Northeast Asia to a wider range of regions， including the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. That said， due to the long-standing grudges between Japan and the ROK in history， culture， territorial disputes and other areas， theres still a possibility of reversal of the relationship between the two countries. Hence， its difficult for the US， Japan and the ROK to form a trilateral military alliance yet.
Russia is picking up pace to “turn to the East”， seeking to expand its international presence in the Asia-Pacific region while maintaining its traditional influence in Central Asia. The year 2023 has witnessed the mutual visits of Chinese and Russian heads of state， stronger political mutual trust and more practical cooperation between the two countries， with a resilient bilateral trade amounting to US$240.112 billion. Meanwhile， Russia continues to strengthen its ties with its traditional partners in the Asia-Pacific region， including India， the DPRK， Vietnam， and Myanmar. The visit of Kim Jong-un， DPRKs top leader， to Russia in September 2023， deepened all-round political and security cooperation between the two countries. Later in November， the DPRK successfully launched its reconnaissance satellite. National Intelligence Service of the ROK has concluded that Russia was behind the DPRKs successful satellite launch.
In recent years， although India still claims to adhere to the foreign policy of “multi-direction alliance”， its pro-US attitude is more obvious， with new progress in its relationship with the US. In 2022， India has successively joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness of the US. In January 2023， the US and India held the first meeting on the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies， which focuses on strengthening cooperation between the two countries in areas such as defense innovation and technology cooperation， as well as exchanges on resilient semiconductor supply chains， space， and science and technology engineering， showing a trend of binding and deepening strategic cooperation between the two countries. In June 2023， Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US， further clarifying that India and the US are “one of the closest partners in the world”， and reiterating his commitment to strengthening India-US all-round cooperation. At the regional level， Indias great power chauvinism has risen， with its regional policy shifting from “neighboring countries first” to “India first”. In this regard， the US is “happy to see it” and supports Indias leadership in South Asia， while India acquiesces in the US expanding its influence in South Asia. The two countries， in fact， have formed a “united front” in the South Asian region.
In the face of major country competition， ASEAN seeks to strengthen strategic autonomy and avoids “picking sides”. Since 2022， especially since 2023 when Indonesia assumed the office of the ASEAN rotating chair， ASEAN has redoubled its efforts to strengthen its “unity”， trying to rebuild the “centrality”. On the one hand， ASEAN has sought to focus its regional agenda on economic cooperation. The 43rd ASEAN Summit in 2023， under the theme “ASEAN Matters：
Epicentrum of Growth”， emphasized the need to deepen ASEANs cooperation with all parties in order to maintain the regions rapid， inclusive and sustained economic growth， and to jointly transform the region into a center of growth for the world economy.
On the other hand， ASEAN has made efforts to coordinate with major countries to consolidate its “centrality” in the Asia-Pacific regions security architecture. For example， the East Asia Summit， a strategic forum that brings together influential powers in the region such as China， the US， Russia， Japan and India， was not only held as scheduled after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis， but also issued a joint statement in September 2023 on the summit. The statement confirmed the consensus of all parties on sustaining the East Asia Summit and pledged to focus on regional economic development and strengthen cooperation in the areas of supply and industrial chain. This is of symbolic significance for the maintenance of the “main theme” of regional peace and development， but also highlights the special role and irreplaceability of ASEAN as an “intermediate bridge” in the Asia-Pacific regional security architecture.
Influenced by the strategic adjustment and reconfiguration of major forces in the region， various sub-regions in the Asia-Pacific region have different security postures. In Northeast Asia， the confrontation between the DPRK and Russia， and the US， Japan， and the ROK is taking shape. The US， Japan and the ROK emphasized that they will work together to address the “intensifying military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK.” Under this pretext， the US has been actively pushing forward the consultation process on the provision of “extended deterrence” to the ROK， launching US-Japan-ROK trilateral exercises， and fully activating the mechanism for real-time sharing of DPRKs missile early warning data， thus increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In South Asia， the US and India have identified China as a “common threat” and used it to shape strategic consensus and enhance bilateral relations， increasing the uncertainty and complexity of the regional security situation. In Southeast Asia， ASEAN has been more successful in maintaining cooperative dynamics in the region as it strives to maintain strategic autonomy. The differences among the sub-regions have resulted in a mix of chaos and cooperation， challenges and opportunities across the Asia-Pacific region.
Traditional and Non-Traditional Security Pose Dual Challenges to the Asia-Pacific Region
In recent years， the turbulence of the international situation and the intensification of major country competition have led to the return of traditional security issues to the main agenda of the Asia-Pacific security， which is highlighted by the increase in the military budget of major countries in the region and that in various types of military cooperation， military exercises， which are highly confrontational. In particular， the US has proposed to help its allies achieve military modernization; the US， Japan and the ROK have put “extended deterrence” back on the agenda; the Philippines has received assistance from the US， Japan， Australia and other countries in maritime security capacity-building. All of these have further pushed up the confrontation and risk of regional security hotspot issues.
Non-traditional security challenges are severe. Natural disasters triggered by extreme weather conditions and the consequent food and energy crises are major threats to small and medium-sized countries in South Asia and the South Pacific. Cyber telecom fraud threatens the lives and property of the people in China and some regional countries. Myanmar handed over 41，000 suspected telecom fraudsters from northern Myanmar to China in 2023 alone. Terrorism has resurfaced， with not only Afghanistan and Pakistan still plagued by terror attacks， but also the southern part of the Philippines once again experiencing violent incidents. Small and medium-sized countries in the region are the main victims of non-traditional security threats. In view of their own limited national governance capacity， they call on major countries to provide more public goods for security governance.
In recent years， the South China Sea issue has been one of the most important security hotspots in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023， the South China Sea issue has heated up further， mainly due to repeated provocations from the Philippine side. After the Ferdinand Marcos administration came to power， it increased its reliance on the US and took persistent infringement actions against Renai Jiao. The Philippine side has attempted to reinforce its “sovereignty” over Renai Jiao in a number of ways， with a view to permanently encroaching on the reef. In response， China has taken resolute action to defend its rights. Against this background， the US and its allies have intervened， which has encouraged the Philippines risky actions and made the South China Sea issue international and judicialized， and greatly aroused public opinion. Hence， the complexity and danger of the South China Sea issue has been further intensified.
On the whole， the situation in the South China Sea is still in a state of fighting but not breaking. While actively safeguarding national sovereignty， China adheres to the “dual-track approach” to maintain stability in the overall situation. In 2023， China and ASEAN countries held several rounds of joint working groups and senior officials meetings to deepen the consensus on continuing to comprehensively and effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and announced the official start of the third text reading of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea （COC）， striving for an early conclusion of the COC to make the South China Sea a sea of peace， friendship and cooperation.
US and Western “De-Risking” Policies Are Aggravating the Complexity of the Regional Security Situation
Under the combined influence of the once-in-a-century changes and geopolitical competition， the global production and supply chain has accelerated its restructuring. The strategic adjustment of US and European industrial policies and production and supply chain strategies has obvious impact on the global economic pattern， and the balance between economy and security in the global geo-economic order has undergone historic changes. Starting from the Obama administration， and going through the Trump and Biden administrations so far， the pan-securitization of US policy toward China has gradually deepened. Focusing on the Asia-Pacific， the US， under the banner of the so-called “economic security”， has coerced its allies to focus on high-tech industries such as semiconductors and other high-tech industries to promote the regional reorganization of the production and supply chain， in an attempt to decouple from China and disrupt supply chains.
Since 2023， the US and its allies has joined hands in accelerating this process. The US， Japan， the ROK and other countries have continued to introduce various policies in key industries including semiconductors， new energy vehicles， digital trade， and implemented these policies in the bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation agenda with Southeast Asia and South Asia. In South Asia， India is seizing the opportunity of US reconstructing， trying to realize the “corner overtaking” in the manufacturing industry， and the US also supports this. In contrast， other countries in South Asia are facing a weak manufacturing base and industrial transformation difficulties. If this situation continues， the South Asian regional economic pattern may shift from its current complementary advantages to one centered on India， and South Asian countries will become part of the global production and supply chain dominated by the US. In Southeast Asia， Vietnam， Malaysia and other regional countries， are trying to make the “multipronged bets”. They have become the “new favorites” of investment and technology transfer of the US， Japan and other countries， but at the same time have not given up cooperation with China. In fact， a pattern of coexistence of competition and cooperation with China has been formed. During the US President Bidens visit to Vietnam in September 2023， the US recognized Vietnams great potential as a major player in the semiconductor industry， supported the rapid development of Vietnams semiconductor “ecosystem”， and was willing to strengthen cooperation， including helping Vietnam train scientific and technological talents and develop high technology， and improve Vietnams position in the global semiconductor supply chain.
The transfer of production and supply chain led by the US and Western countries is aimed at “de-risking” and “de-sinicization”. It will only lead to the fragmentation of the economic pattern in the Asia-Pacific region， and at the same time force small and medium-sized countries to “pick a side”， affecting their security concepts and foreign policy choices. Of course， it is not easy for the US to realize its attempt to exclude China from the production and supply chain it dominates. China has been involved in Asia-Pacific cooperation for decades， and has formed close economic and trade relations with countries in the region. It is in a central position in Asia-Pacific regional integration. Currently， Asia-Pacific economic integration is still advancing steadily， with trade and investment， infrastructure and digital connectivity being particularly active， and regional supply chains and industrial networks deeply intertwined. At the same time， Chinas advantages in geographic location， industrial “ecosystems”， market size and talent pools allow for a wide scope of cooperation between China and other Asia-Pacific economies. Therefore， the future reorganization of the production and supply chain in the Asia-Pacific region will face multi-party competition and cooperation， which is a longer evolutionary process and will be affected by multiple domestic， international and regional factors.
Reflections on the Path of Responding to the Security Changes in the Asia-Pacific Region
At present and in the upcoming future， the strategic adjustment of the major forces in the Asia-Pacific region will continue， especially the strategic competition between the US and China and the far-reaching impact of the technological and industrial revolutions will be superimposed on each other. The international and regional pattern， which in the past was based on safeguarding sovereignty and maintaining military power， will be more affected by the economic and technological competition in the future， which will increase the complexity and uncertainty of the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Amid the turbulence and changes in the Asia-Pacific region， China shall have strategic confidence as well as a sense of strategic urgency， shoulder the responsibility as a major country in promoting regional peace and development， and resolutely serve as the defender of peace and the facilitator of development. In light of the guiding principles of the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs， China will in the coming period， aim to promote the building of an Asia-Pacific community with a shared future， and endeavor to work with regional countries to promote the building of an open， inclusive， clean and beautiful Asia-Pacific region that enjoys lasting peace， universal security， and common prosperity.
First， China shall properly handle its relations with other major countries， especially with the US. China-US relations is a major factor affecting security in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the US comprehensive strategic competition with China will not change fundamentally in the short term， both China and the US attach importance to maintaining the necessary communication to avoid misperception and miscalculation. The San Francisco summit meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state at the end of 2023 reconfirmed the basic consensus on stabilizing China-US relations.
Second， China shall strengthen strategic coordination with small and medium-sized countries in the region， so as to overcome the danger of regional division and confrontation， and seize the existing opportunities for unity and cooperation. China has always attached importance to the demands of regional small and medium-sized countries for focusing on economic development and dealing with non-traditional security threats. In the future， China should continue to take the high-quality Belt and Road cooperation and the Global Development Initiative as the main tools， and focus on emerging industries to tap new driving forces for economic growth， and lead the restructuring of the regional supply and production chain. China should join hands with small and medium-sized countries in the region to realize economic and social stability and sustainable development， make joint efforts to maintain regional security， and build a just， inclusive， balanced and cooperative regional order.
Last but not least， China shall persist in seeking cooperation and peace with a fighting spirit. In the face of the so-called “integrated deterrence” promoted by the US， China must strengthen its military modernization and focus on enhancing the militarys combat capability. On the South China Sea issue， China shall firmly safeguard its sovereignty， security and development interests， and at the same time be efficient at crisis management in response to possible accidental friction. On all kinds of nontraditional security challenges， China will take the path of promoting regional governance based on joint consultation， collaboration and shared benefits. Facing the security concerns of small and medium-sized countries in the region， China shall leverage its strengths and strengthen communication with these countries relying on regional multilateral mechanisms， so as to enhance their security governance capacity and promote cooperation in regional security governance.
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Zhang Jie is Research Fellow of the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences